Daily Papers

Crop yield prediction requires substantial data to train scalable models. However, creating yield prediction datasets is constrained by high acquisition costs, heterogeneous data quality, and data privacy regulations. Consequently, existing datasets are scarce, low in quality, or limited to regional levels or single crop types, hindering the development of scalable data-driven solutions. In this work, we release YieldSAT, a large, high-quality, and multimodal dataset for high-resolution crop yield prediction. YieldSAT spans various climate zones across multiple countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Germany, and includes major crop types, including corn, rapeseed, soybeans, and wheat, across 2,173 expert-curated fields. In total, over 12.2 million yield samples are available, each with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Each field is paired with multispectral satellite imagery, resulting in 113,555 labeled satellite images, complemented by auxiliary environmental data. We demonstrate the potential of large-scale and high-resolution crop yield prediction as a pixel regression task by comparing various deep learning models and data fusion architectures. Furthermore, we highlight open challenges arising from severe distribution shifts in the ground truth data under real-world conditions. To mitigate this, we explore a domain-informed Deep Ensemble approach that exhibits significant performance gains. The dataset is available at https://yieldsat.github.io/.

Accurate crop yield prediction is of utmost importance for informed decision-making in agriculture, aiding farmers, and industry stakeholders. However, this task is complex and depends on multiple factors, such as environmental conditions, soil properties, and management practices. Combining heterogeneous data views poses a fusion challenge, like identifying the view-specific contribution to the predictive task. We present a novel multi-view learning approach to predict crop yield for different crops (soybean, wheat, rapeseed) and regions (Argentina, Uruguay, and Germany). Our multi-view input data includes multi-spectral optical images from Sentinel-2 satellites and weather data as dynamic features during the crop growing season, complemented by static features like soil properties and topographic information. To effectively fuse the data, we introduce a Multi-view Gated Fusion (MVGF) model, comprising dedicated view-encoders and a Gated Unit (GU) module. The view-encoders handle the heterogeneity of data sources with varying temporal resolutions by learning a view-specific representation. These representations are adaptively fused via a weighted sum. The fusion weights are computed for each sample by the GU using a concatenation of the view-representations. The MVGF model is trained at sub-field level with 10 m resolution pixels. Our evaluations show that the MVGF outperforms conventional models on the same task, achieving the best results by incorporating all the data sources, unlike the usual fusion results in the literature. For Argentina, the MVGF model achieves an R2 value of 0.68 at sub-field yield prediction, while at field level evaluation (comparing field averages), it reaches around 0.80 across different countries. The GU module learned different weights based on the country and crop-type, aligning with the variable significance of each data source to the prediction task.

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

Accurate remote sensing-based crop yield prediction remains a fundamental challenging task due to complex spatial patterns, heterogeneous spectral characteristics, and dynamic agricultural conditions. Existing methods often suffer from limited spatial modeling capacity, weak generalization across crop types and years. To address these challenges, we propose DFYP, a novel Dynamic Fusion framework for crop Yield Prediction, which combines spectral channel attention, edge-adaptive spatial modeling and a learnable fusion mechanism to improve robustness across diverse agricultural scenarios. Specifically, DFYP introduces three key components: (1) a Resolution-aware Channel Attention (RCA) module that enhances spectral representation by adaptively reweighting input channels based on resolution-specific characteristics; (2) an Adaptive Operator Learning Network (AOL-Net) that dynamically selects operators for convolutional kernels to improve edge-sensitive spatial feature extraction under varying crop and temporal conditions; and (3) a dual-branch architecture with a learnable fusion mechanism, which jointly models local spatial details and global contextual information to support cross-resolution and cross-crop generalization. Extensive experiments on multi-year datasets MODIS and multi-crop dataset Sentinel-2 demonstrate that DFYP consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art baselines in RMSE, MAE, and R2 across different spatial resolutions, crop types, and time periods, showcasing its effectiveness and robustness for real-world agricultural monitoring.

We introduce a simple yet effective early fusion method for crop yield prediction that handles multiple input modalities with different temporal and spatial resolutions. We use high-resolution crop yield maps as ground truth data to train crop and machine learning model agnostic methods at the sub-field level. We use Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as the primary modality for input data with other complementary modalities, including weather, soil, and DEM data. The proposed method uses input modalities available with global coverage, making the framework globally scalable. We explicitly highlight the importance of input modalities for crop yield prediction and emphasize that the best-performing combination of input modalities depends on region, crop, and chosen model.

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the U.S. Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and bigger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use--especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

Machine learning has promised to change the landscape of laboratory chemistry, with impressive results in molecular property prediction and reaction retro-synthesis. However, chemical datasets are often inaccessible to the machine learning community as they tend to require cleaning, thorough understanding of the chemistry, or are simply not available. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset for yield prediction, providing the first-ever transient flow dataset for machine learning benchmarking, covering over 1200 process conditions. While previous datasets focus on discrete parameters, our experimental set-up allow us to sample a large number of continuous process conditions, generating new challenges for machine learning models. We focus on solvent selection, a task that is particularly difficult to model theoretically and therefore ripe for machine learning applications. We showcase benchmarking for regression algorithms, transfer-learning approaches, feature engineering, and active learning, with important applications towards solvent replacement and sustainable manufacturing.

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.

Agricultural applications such as yield prediction, precision agriculture and automated harvesting need systems able to infer the crop state from low-cost sensing devices. Proximal sensing using affordable cameras combined with computer vision has seen a promising alternative, strengthened after the advent of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as an alternative for challenging pattern recognition problems in natural images. Considering fruit growing monitoring and automation, a fundamental problem is the detection, segmentation and counting of individual fruits in orchards. Here we show that for wine grapes, a crop presenting large variability in shape, color, size and compactness, grape clusters can be successfully detected, segmented and tracked using state-of-the-art CNNs. In a test set containing 408 grape clusters from images taken on a trellis-system based vineyard, we have reached an F 1 -score up to 0.91 for instance segmentation, a fine separation of each cluster from other structures in the image that allows a more accurate assessment of fruit size and shape. We have also shown as clusters can be identified and tracked along video sequences recording orchard rows. We also present a public dataset containing grape clusters properly annotated in 300 images and a novel annotation methodology for segmentation of complex objects in natural images. The presented pipeline for annotation, training, evaluation and tracking of agricultural patterns in images can be replicated for different crops and production systems. It can be employed in the development of sensing components for several agricultural and environmental applications.

Data scarcity in African agriculture hampers machine learning (ML) model performance, limiting innovations in precision agriculture. The Synthetic Agriculture Data for Africa (SAGDA) library, a Python-based open-source toolkit, addresses this gap by generating, augmenting, and validating synthetic agricultural datasets. We present SAGDA's design and development practices, highlighting its core functions: generate, model, augment, validate, visualize, optimize, and simulate, as well as their roles in applications of ML for agriculture. Two use cases are detailed: yield prediction enhanced via data augmentation, and multi-objective NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium) fertilizer recommendation. We conclude with future plans for expanding SAGDA's capabilities, underscoring the vital role of open-source, data-driven practices for African agriculture.

Transformer-based deep neural networks have revolutionized the field of molecular-related prediction tasks by treating molecules as symbolic sequences. These models have been successfully applied in various organic chemical applications by pretraining them with extensive compound libraries and subsequently fine-tuning them with smaller in-house datasets for specific tasks. However, many conventional methods primarily focus on single molecules, with limited exploration of pretraining for reactions involving multiple molecules. In this paper, we propose ReactionT5, a novel model that leverages pretraining on the Open Reaction Database (ORD), a publicly available large-scale resource. We further fine-tune this model for yield prediction and product prediction tasks, demonstrating its impressive performance even with limited fine-tuning data compared to traditional models. The pre-trained ReactionT5 model is publicly accessible on the Hugging Face platform.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is accelerating the transformation of scientific research paradigms, not only enhancing research efficiency but also driving innovation. We introduce NovelSeek, a unified closed-loop multi-agent framework to conduct Autonomous Scientific Research (ASR) across various scientific research fields, enabling researchers to tackle complicated problems in these fields with unprecedented speed and precision. NovelSeek highlights three key advantages: 1) Scalability: NovelSeek has demonstrated its versatility across 12 scientific research tasks, capable of generating innovative ideas to enhance the performance of baseline code. 2) Interactivity: NovelSeek provides an interface for human expert feedback and multi-agent interaction in automated end-to-end processes, allowing for the seamless integration of domain expert knowledge. 3) Efficiency: NovelSeek has achieved promising performance gains in several scientific fields with significantly less time cost compared to human efforts. For instance, in reaction yield prediction, it increased from 27.6% to 35.4% in just 12 hours; in enhancer activity prediction, accuracy rose from 0.52 to 0.79 with only 4 hours of processing; and in 2D semantic segmentation, precision advanced from 78.8% to 81.0% in a mere 30 hours.

Accurate plant counting provides valuable information for agriculture such as crop yield prediction, plant density assessment, and phenotype quantification. Vision-based approaches are currently the mainstream solution. Prior art typically uses a detection or a regression model to count a specific plant. However, plants have biodiversity, and new cultivars are increasingly bred each year. It is almost impossible to exhaust and build all species-dependent counting models. Inspired by class-agnostic counting (CAC) in computer vision, we argue that it is time to rethink the problem formulation of plant counting, from what plants to count to how to count plants. In contrast to most daily objects with spatial and temporal invariance, plants are dynamic, changing with time and space. Their non-rigid structure often leads to worse performance than counting rigid instances like heads and cars such that current CAC and open-world detection models are suboptimal to count plants. In this work, we inherit the vein of the TasselNet plant counting model and introduce a new extension, TasselNetV4, shifting from species-specific counting to cross-species counting. TasselNetV4 marries the local counting idea of TasselNet with the extract-and-match paradigm in CAC. It builds upon a plain vision transformer and incorporates novel multi-branch box-aware local counters used to enhance cross-scale robustness. Two challenging datasets, PAC-105 and PAC-Somalia, are harvested. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art CAC models show that TasselNetV4 achieves not only superior counting performance but also high efficiency.Our results indicate that TasselNetV4 emerges to be a vision foundation model for cross-scene, cross-scale, and cross-species plant counting.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong abilities in natural language processing tasks have emerged and have been rapidly applied in various kinds of areas such as science, finance and software engineering. However, the capability of LLMs to advance the field of chemistry remains unclear. In this paper,we establish a comprehensive benchmark containing 8 practical chemistry tasks, including 1) name prediction, 2) property prediction, 3) yield prediction, 4) reaction prediction, 5) retrosynthesis (prediction of reactants from products), 6)text-based molecule design, 7) molecule captioning, and 8) reagent selection. Our analysis draws on widely recognized datasets including BBBP, Tox21, PubChem, USPTO, and ChEBI, facilitating a broad exploration of the capacities of LLMs within the context of practical chemistry. Three GPT models (GPT-4, GPT-3.5,and Davinci-003) are evaluated for each chemistry task in zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning settings with carefully selected demonstration examples and specially crafted prompts. The key results of our investigation are 1) GPT-4 outperforms the other two models among the three evaluated; 2) GPT models exhibit less competitive performance in tasks demanding precise understanding of molecular SMILES representation, such as reaction prediction and retrosynthesis;3) GPT models demonstrate strong capabilities in text-related explanation tasks such as molecule captioning; and 4) GPT models exhibit comparable or better performance to classical machine learning models when applied to chemical problems that can be transformed into classification or ranking tasks, such as property prediction, and yield prediction.

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Accurate maize seedling detection is crucial for precision agriculture, yet curated datasets remain scarce. We introduce MSDD, a high-quality aerial image dataset for maize seedling stand counting, with applications in early-season crop monitoring, yield prediction, and in-field management. Stand counting determines how many plants germinated, guiding timely decisions such as replanting or adjusting inputs. Traditional methods are labor-intensive and error-prone, while computer vision enables efficient, accurate detection. MSDD contains three classes-single, double, and triple plants-capturing diverse growth stages, planting setups, soil types, lighting conditions, camera angles, and densities, ensuring robustness for real-world use. Benchmarking shows detection is most reliable during V4-V6 stages and under nadir views. Among tested models, YOLO11 is fastest, while YOLOv9 yields the highest accuracy for single plants. Single plant detection achieves precision up to 0.984 and recall up to 0.873, but detecting doubles and triples remains difficult due to rarity and irregular appearance, often from planting errors. Class imbalance further reduces accuracy in multi-plant detection. Despite these challenges, YOLO11 maintains efficient inference at 35 ms per image, with an additional 120 ms for saving outputs. MSDD establishes a strong foundation for developing models that enhance stand counting, optimize resource allocation, and support real-time decision-making. This dataset marks a step toward automating agricultural monitoring and advancing precision agriculture.

Autonomous navigation is the key to achieving the full automation of agricultural research and production management (e.g., disease management and yield prediction) using agricultural robots. In this paper, we introduced a vision-based autonomous navigation framework for agriculture robots in trellised cropping systems such as vineyards. To achieve this, we proposed a novel learning-based method to estimate the path traversibility heatmap directly from an RGB-D image and subsequently convert the heatmap to a preferred traversal path. An automatic annotation pipeline was developed to form a training dataset by projecting RTK GPS paths collected during the first setup in a vineyard in corresponding RGB-D images as ground-truth path annotations, allowing a fast model training and fine-tuning without costly human annotation. The trained path detection model was used to develop a full navigation framework consisting of row tracking and row switching modules, enabling a robot to traverse within a crop row and transit between crop rows to cover an entire vineyard autonomously. Extensive field trials were conducted in three different vineyards to demonstrate that the developed path detection model and navigation framework provided a cost-effective, accurate, and robust autonomous navigation solution in the vineyard and could be generalized to unseen vineyards with stable performance.

Virtual cell modeling predicts molecular state changes under genetic perturbations in silico, which is essential for biological mechanism studies. However, existing approaches suffer from unconstrained reasoning, uninterpretable predictions, and retrieval signals that are weakly aligned with regulatory topology. To address these limitations, we propose AROMA, an Augmented Reasoning Over a Multimodal Architecture for virtual cell genetic perturbation modeling. AROMA integrates textual evidence, graph-topology information, and protein sequence features to model perturbation-target dependencies, and is trained with a two-stage optimization strategy to yield predictions that are both accurate and interpretable. We also construct two knowledge graphs and a perturbation reasoning dataset, PerturbReason, containing more than 498k samples, as reusable resources for the virtual cell domain. Experiments show that AROMA outperforms existing methods across multiple cell lines, and remains robust under zero-shot evaluation on an unseen cell line, as well as in knowledge-sparse, long-tail scenarios. Overall, AROMA demonstrates that combining knowledge-driven multimodal modeling with evidence retrieval provides a promising pathway toward more reliable and interpretable virtual cell perturbation prediction. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/blazerye/AROMA. Code is available at https://github.com/blazerye/AROMA.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art results on many modalities including images, speech, and video. However, existing models are not tailored to support remote sensing data, which is widely used in important applications including environmental monitoring and crop-yield prediction. Satellite images are significantly different from natural images -- they can be multi-spectral, irregularly sampled across time -- and existing diffusion models trained on images from the Web do not support them. Furthermore, remote sensing data is inherently spatio-temporal, requiring conditional generation tasks not supported by traditional methods based on captions or images. In this paper, we present DiffusionSat, to date the largest generative foundation model trained on a collection of publicly available large, high-resolution remote sensing datasets. As text-based captions are sparsely available for satellite images, we incorporate the associated metadata such as geolocation as conditioning information. Our method produces realistic samples and can be used to solve multiple generative tasks including temporal generation, superresolution given multi-spectral inputs and in-painting. Our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for satellite image generation and is the first large-scale generative foundation model for satellite imagery.

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.

Cellular form and function emerge from complex mechanochemical systems within the cytoplasm. No systematic strategy currently exists to infer large-scale physical properties of a cell from its many molecular components. This is a significant obstacle to understanding biophysical processes such as cell adhesion and migration. Here, we develop a data-driven biophysical modeling approach to learn the mechanical behavior of adherent cells. We first train neural networks to predict forces generated by adherent cells from images of cytoskeletal proteins. Strikingly, experimental images of a single focal adhesion protein, such as zyxin, are sufficient to predict forces and generalize to unseen biological regimes. This protein field alone contains enough information to yield accurate predictions even if forces themselves are generated by many interacting proteins. We next develop two approaches - one explicitly constrained by physics, the other more agnostic - that help construct data-driven continuum models of cellular forces using this single focal adhesion field. Both strategies consistently reveal that cellular forces are encoded by two different length scales in adhesion protein distributions. Beyond adherent cell mechanics, our work serves as a case study for how to integrate neural networks in the construction of predictive phenomenological models in cell biology, even when little knowledge of the underlying microscopic mechanisms exist.

State of the art large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on a variety of benchmark tasks and are increasingly used as components in larger applications, where LLM-based predictions serve as proxies for human judgements or decision. This raises questions about the human-likeness of LLM-derived information, alignment with human intuition, and whether LLMs could possibly be considered (parts of) explanatory models of (aspects of) human cognition or language use. To shed more light on these issues, we here investigate the human-likeness of LLMs' predictions for multiple-choice decision tasks from the perspective of Bayesian statistical modeling. Using human data from a forced-choice experiment on pragmatic language use, we find that LLMs do not capture the variance in the human data at the item-level. We suggest different ways of deriving full distributional predictions from LLMs for aggregate, condition-level data, and find that some, but not all ways of obtaining condition-level predictions yield adequate fits to human data. These results suggests that assessment of LLM performance depends strongly on seemingly subtle choices in methodology, and that LLMs are at best predictors of human behavior at the aggregate, condition-level, for which they are, however, not designed to, or usually used to, make predictions in the first place.

Representation learning in sequential recommendation is critical for accurately modeling user interaction patterns and improving recommendation precision. However, existing approaches predominantly emphasize item-to-item transitions, often neglecting the time intervals between interactions, which are closely related to behavior pattern changes. Additionally, broader interaction attributes, such as item frequency, are frequently overlooked. We found that both sequences with more uniform time intervals and items with higher frequency yield better prediction performance. Conversely, non-uniform sequences exacerbate user interest drift and less-frequent items are difficult to model due to sparse sampling, presenting unique challenges inadequately addressed by current methods. In this paper, we propose UniRec, a novel bidirectional enhancement sequential recommendation method. UniRec leverages sequence uniformity and item frequency to enhance performance, particularly improving the representation of non-uniform sequences and less-frequent items. These two branches mutually reinforce each other, driving comprehensive performance optimization in complex sequential recommendation scenarios. Additionally, we present a multidimensional time module to further enhance adaptability. To the best of our knowledge, UniRec is the first method to utilize the characteristics of uniformity and frequency for feature augmentation. Comparing with eleven advanced models across four datasets, we demonstrate that UniRec outperforms SOTA models significantly. The code is available at https://github.com/Linxi000/UniRec.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.

Multi-view consistency remains a challenge for image diffusion models. Even within the Text-to-Texture problem, where perfect geometric correspondences are known a priori, many methods fail to yield aligned predictions across views, necessitating non-trivial fusion methods to incorporate the results onto the original mesh. We explore this issue for a Collaborative Control workflow specifically in PBR Text-to-Texture. Collaborative Control directly models PBR image probability distributions, including normal bump maps; to our knowledge, the only diffusion model to directly output full PBR stacks. We discuss the design decisions involved in making this model multi-view consistent, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in ablation studies, as well as practical applications.

Despite the increasing availability of high-performance computational resources, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations remain the workhorse for the analysis of turbulent flows in real-world applications. Linear eddy viscosity models (LEVM), the most commonly employed model type, cannot accurately predict complex states of turbulence. This work combines a deep-neural-network-based, nonlinear eddy viscosity model with turbulence realizability constraints as an inductive bias in order to yield improved predictions of the anisotropy tensor. Using visualizations based on the barycentric map, we show that the proposed machine learning method's anisotropy tensor predictions offer a significant improvement over all LEVMs in traditionally challenging cases with surface curvature and flow separation. However, this improved anisotropy tensor does not, in general, yield improved mean-velocity and pressure field predictions in comparison with the best-performing LEVM.

Attention mechanisms have seen wide adoption in neural NLP models. In addition to improving predictive performance, these are often touted as affording transparency: models equipped with attention provide a distribution over attended-to input units, and this is often presented (at least implicitly) as communicating the relative importance of inputs. However, it is unclear what relationship exists between attention weights and model outputs. In this work, we perform extensive experiments across a variety of NLP tasks that aim to assess the degree to which attention weights provide meaningful `explanations' for predictions. We find that they largely do not. For example, learned attention weights are frequently uncorrelated with gradient-based measures of feature importance, and one can identify very different attention distributions that nonetheless yield equivalent predictions. Our findings show that standard attention modules do not provide meaningful explanations and should not be treated as though they do. Code for all experiments is available at https://github.com/successar/AttentionExplanation.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Behavioral studies have shown that the memorability of images is similar across groups of people, suggesting that memorability is a function of the intrinsic properties of images, and is unrelated to people's individual experiences and traits. Deep learning networks can be trained on such properties and be used to predict memorability in new data sets. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have pioneered image memorability prediction, but more recently developed vision transformer (ViT) models may have the potential to yield even better predictions. In this paper, we present the ViTMem, a new memorability model based on ViT, and evaluate memorability predictions obtained by it with state-of-the-art CNN-derived models. Results showed that ViTMem performed equal to or better than state-of-the-art models on all data sets. Additional semantic level analyses revealed that ViTMem is particularly sensitive to the semantic content that drives memorability in images. We conclude that ViTMem provides a new step forward, and propose that ViT-derived models can replace CNNs for computational prediction of image memorability. Researchers, educators, advertisers, visual designers and other interested parties can leverage the model to improve the memorability of their image material.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

When applied to question answering and other text generation tasks, language models (LMs) may be queried generatively (by sampling answers from their output distribution) or discriminatively (by using them to score or rank a set of candidate outputs). These procedures sometimes yield very different predictions. How do we reconcile mutually incompatible scoring procedures to obtain coherent LM predictions? We introduce a new, a training-free, game-theoretic procedure for language model decoding. Our approach casts language model decoding as a regularized imperfect-information sequential signaling game - which we term the CONSENSUS GAME - in which a GENERATOR seeks to communicate an abstract correctness parameter using natural language sentences to a DISCRIMINATOR. We develop computational procedures for finding approximate equilibria of this game, resulting in a decoding algorithm we call EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING. Applied to a large number of tasks (including reading comprehension, commonsense reasoning, mathematical problem-solving, and dialog), EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING consistently, and sometimes substantially, improves performance over existing LM decoding procedures - on multiple benchmarks, we observe that applying EQUILIBRIUM-RANKING to LLaMA-7B outperforms the much larger LLaMA-65B and PaLM-540B models. These results highlight the promise of game-theoretic tools for addressing fundamental challenges of truthfulness and consistency in LMs.

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on in-domain test datasets, they are limited by their inability to yield reliable uncertainty estimates in domain-shift and out-of-domain (OOD) scenarios. We aim to bridge this gap by proposing DAC, an accuracy-preserving as well as Density-Aware Calibration method based on k-nearest-neighbors (KNN). In contrast to existing post-hoc methods, we utilize hidden layers of classifiers as a source for uncertainty-related information and study their importance. We show that DAC is a generic method that can readily be combined with state-of-the-art post-hoc methods. DAC boosts the robustness of calibration performance in domain-shift and OOD, while maintaining excellent in-domain predictive uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that DAC leads to consistently better calibration across a large number of model architectures, datasets, and metrics. Additionally, we show that DAC improves calibration substantially on recent large-scale neural networks pre-trained on vast amounts of data.

Providing a model that achieves a strong predictive performance and is simultaneously interpretable by humans is one of the most difficult challenges in machine learning research due to the conflicting nature of these two objectives. To address this challenge, we propose a modification of the radial basis function neural network model by equipping its Gaussian kernel with a learnable precision matrix. We show that precious information is contained in the spectrum of the precision matrix that can be extracted once the training of the model is completed. In particular, the eigenvectors explain the directions of maximum sensitivity of the model revealing the active subspace and suggesting potential applications for supervised dimensionality reduction. At the same time, the eigenvectors highlight the relationship in terms of absolute variation between the input and the latent variables, thereby allowing us to extract a ranking of the input variables based on their importance to the prediction task enhancing the model interpretability. We conducted numerical experiments for regression, classification, and feature selection tasks, comparing our model against popular machine learning models, the state-of-the-art deep learning-based embedding feature selection techniques, and a transformer model for tabular data. Our results demonstrate that the proposed model does not only yield an attractive prediction performance compared to the competitors but also provides meaningful and interpretable results that potentially could assist the decision-making process in real-world applications. A PyTorch implementation of the model is available on GitHub at the following link. https://github.com/dannyzx/Gaussian-RBFNN

Detecting emotional inconsistency across modalities is a key challenge in affective computing, as speech and text often convey conflicting cues. Existing approaches generally rely on incomplete emotion representations and employ unconditional fusion, which weakens performance when modalities are inconsistent. Moreover, little prior work explicitly addresses inconsistency detection itself. We propose InconVAD, a two-stage framework grounded in the Valence/Arousal/Dominance (VAD) space. In the first stage, independent uncertainty-aware models yield robust unimodal predictions. In the second stage, a classifier identifies cross-modal inconsistency and selectively integrates consistent signals. Extensive experiments show that InconVAD surpasses existing methods in both multimodal emotion inconsistency detection and modeling, offering a more reliable and interpretable solution for emotion analysis.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Most prior semantic segmentation methods have been developed for day-time scenes, while typically underperforming in night-time scenes due to insufficient and complicated lighting conditions. In this work, we tackle this challenge by proposing a novel night-time semantic segmentation paradigm, i.e., disentangle then parse (DTP). DTP explicitly disentangles night-time images into light-invariant reflectance and light-specific illumination components and then recognizes semantics based on their adaptive fusion. Concretely, the proposed DTP comprises two key components: 1) Instead of processing lighting-entangled features as in prior works, our Semantic-Oriented Disentanglement (SOD) framework enables the extraction of reflectance component without being impeded by lighting, allowing the network to consistently recognize the semantics under cover of varying and complicated lighting conditions. 2) Based on the observation that the illumination component can serve as a cue for some semantically confused regions, we further introduce an Illumination-Aware Parser (IAParser) to explicitly learn the correlation between semantics and lighting, and aggregate the illumination features to yield more precise predictions. Extensive experiments on the night-time segmentation task with various settings demonstrate that DTP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, with negligible additional parameters, DTP can be directly used to benefit existing day-time methods for night-time segmentation.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Unsupervised automatic speech recognition (ASR) aims to learn the mapping between the speech signal and its corresponding textual transcription without the supervision of paired speech-text data. A word/phoneme in the speech signal is represented by a segment of speech signal with variable length and unknown boundary, and this segmental structure makes learning the mapping between speech and text challenging, especially without paired data. In this paper, we propose REBORN, Reinforcement-Learned Boundary Segmentation with Iterative Training for Unsupervised ASR. REBORN alternates between (1) training a segmentation model that predicts the boundaries of the segmental structures in speech signals and (2) training the phoneme prediction model, whose input is a segmental structure segmented by the segmentation model, to predict a phoneme transcription. Since supervised data for training the segmentation model is not available, we use reinforcement learning to train the segmentation model to favor segmentations that yield phoneme sequence predictions with a lower perplexity. We conduct extensive experiments and find that under the same setting, REBORN outperforms all prior unsupervised ASR models on LibriSpeech, TIMIT, and five non-English languages in Multilingual LibriSpeech. We comprehensively analyze why the boundaries learned by REBORN improve the unsupervised ASR performance.

Potato yield is a key indicator for optimizing cultivation practices in agriculture. Potato yield can be estimated on harvesters using RGB-D cameras, which capture three-dimensional (3D) information of individual tubers moving along the conveyor belt. However, point clouds reconstructed from RGB-D images are incomplete due to self-occlusion, leading to systematic underestimation of tuber weight. To address this, we introduce PointRAFT, a high-throughput point cloud regression network that directly predicts continuous 3D shape properties, such as tuber weight, from partial point clouds. Rather than reconstructing full 3D geometry, PointRAFT infers target values directly from raw 3D data. Its key architectural novelty is an object height embedding that incorporates tuber height as an additional geometric cue, improving weight prediction under practical harvesting conditions. PointRAFT was trained and evaluated on 26,688 partial point clouds collected from 859 potato tubers across four cultivars and three growing seasons on an operational harvester in Japan. On a test set of 5,254 point clouds from 172 tubers, PointRAFT achieved a mean absolute error of 12.0 g and a root mean squared error of 17.2 g, substantially outperforming a linear regression baseline and a standard PointNet++ regression network. With an average inference time of 6.3 ms per point cloud, PointRAFT supports processing rates of up to 150 tubers per second, meeting the high-throughput requirements of commercial potato harvesters. Beyond potato weight estimation, PointRAFT provides a versatile regression network applicable to a wide range of 3D phenotyping and robotic perception tasks. The code, network weights, and a subset of the dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/pieterblok/pointraft.git.

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on the Visibility Graph (VG) algorithm, and a slightly modified version of it, the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG), which map a time series into a complex network. Various network metrics exhibit either an exponential or a scale-free behavior, and we find that the evolution of the characteristic decay exponents is consistent with variations of the sunspots number along solar cycles. During solar minimum, the sunspots number and the solar index time series have characteristic decay exponents that correlate well with the next maximum sunspots number, suggesting that they may be good precursors of the intensity of the next solar maximum. Based on this observation, we find that, based on current data, the algorithm predicts a number of 179 sunspots for cycle 25. Combining this with the Hathaway function, adjusted to yield such maximum sunspots number, we find that the maximum for solar cycle 25 will occur in December 2024/January 2025.

In this work we study static neutron stars in the context of several inflationary models which are popular in cosmology. These inflationary models are non-minimally coupled scalar theories which yield a viable inflationary phenomenology in both Jordan and Einstein frames. By considering the constraints from inflationary theories, which basically determine the values of the potential strength, usually considered as a free parameter in astrophysical neutron star works, we construct and solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equations using a solid python-3 LSODA integrator. For our study we consider several popular inflationary models, such as the universal attractors, the R^p attractors (three distinct model values), the induced inflation, the quadratic inflation, the Higgs inflation and the a-attractors (two distinct model values) and for the following popular equations of state the WFF1, the SLy, the APR, the MS1, the AP3, the AP4, the ENG, the MPA1 and the MS1b. We construct the M-R diagram and we confront the resulting theory with theoretical and observational constraints. As we demonstrate, remarkably, all the neutron stars produced by all the inflationary models we considered are compatible with all the constraints for the MPA1 equation of state. It is notable that for this particular equation of state, the maximum masses of the neutron stars are in the mass-gap region with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit. We also make the observation that as the NICER constraints are pushed towards larger radii, as for example in the case of the black widow pulsar PSR J0952-0607, it seems that equations of state that produce neutron stars with maximum masses in the mass gap region, with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit, are favored and are compatible with the modified NICER constraints.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

This paper tries to address a fundamental question in point cloud self-supervised learning: what is a good signal we should leverage to learn features from point clouds without annotations? To answer that, we introduce a point cloud representation learning framework, based on geometric feature reconstruction. In contrast to recent papers that directly adopt masked autoencoder (MAE) and only predict original coordinates or occupancy from masked point clouds, our method revisits differences between images and point clouds and identifies three self-supervised learning objectives peculiar to point clouds, namely centroid prediction, normal estimation, and curvature prediction. Combined with occupancy prediction, these four objectives yield an nontrivial self-supervised learning task and mutually facilitate models to better reason fine-grained geometry of point clouds. Our pipeline is conceptually simple and it consists of two major steps: first, it randomly masks out groups of points, followed by a Transformer-based point cloud encoder; second, a lightweight Transformer decoder predicts centroid, normal, and curvature for points in each voxel. We transfer the pre-trained Transformer encoder to a downstream peception model. On the nuScene Datset, our model achieves 3.38 mAP improvment for object detection, 2.1 mIoU gain for segmentation, and 1.7 AMOTA gain for multi-object tracking. We also conduct experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset and achieve significant performance improvements over baselines as well.

Inspired by the success of generative pretraining in natural language, we ask whether the same principles can yield strong self-supervised visual learners. Instead of training models to output features for downstream use, we train them to generate embeddings to perform predictive tasks directly. This work explores such a shift from learning representations to learning models. Specifically, models learn to predict future patch embeddings conditioned on past ones, using causal masking and stop gradient, which we refer to as Next-Embedding Predictive Autoregression (NEPA). We demonstrate that a simple Transformer pretrained on ImageNet-1k with next embedding prediction as its sole learning objective is effective - no pixel reconstruction, discrete tokens, contrastive loss, or task-specific heads. This formulation retains architectural simplicity and scalability, without requiring additional design complexity. NEPA achieves strong results across tasks, attaining 83.8% and 85.3% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet-1K with ViT-B and ViT-L backbones after fine-tuning, and transferring effectively to semantic segmentation on ADE20K. We believe generative pretraining from embeddings provides a simple, scalable, and potentially modality-agnostic alternative to visual self-supervised learning.

Semantic answer type prediction (SMART) is known to be a useful step towards effective question answering (QA) systems. The SMART task involves predicting the top-k knowledge graph (KG) types for a given natural language question. This is challenging due to the large number of types in KGs. In this paper, we propose use of extreme multi-label classification using Transformer models (XBERT) by clustering KG types using structural and semantic features based on question text. We specifically improve the clustering stage of the XBERT pipeline using textual and structural features derived from KGs. We show that these features can improve end-to-end performance for the SMART task, and yield state-of-the-art results.

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

Pre-trained language models (LMs) are capable of in-context learning (ICL): they can adapt to a task with only a few examples given in the prompt without any parameter update. However, it is unclear where this capability comes from as there is a stark distribution shift between pre-training text and ICL prompts. In this work, we study what patterns of the pre-training data contribute to ICL. We find that LMs' ICL ability depends on parallel structures in the pre-training data -- pairs of phrases following similar templates in the same context window. Specifically, we detect parallel structures by checking whether training on one phrase improves prediction of the other, and conduct ablation experiments to study their effect on ICL. We show that removing parallel structures in the pre-training data reduces LMs' ICL accuracy by 51% (vs 2% from random ablation). This drop persists even when excluding common patterns such as n-gram repetitions and long-range dependency, showing the diversity and generality of parallel structures. A closer look at the detected parallel structures indicates that they cover diverse linguistic tasks and span long distances in the data.

Roman Numeral analysis is the important task of identifying chords and their functional context in pieces of tonal music. This paper presents a new approach to automatic Roman Numeral analysis in symbolic music. While existing techniques rely on an intermediate lossy representation of the score, we propose a new method based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that enable the direct description and processing of each individual note in the score. The proposed architecture can leverage notewise features and interdependencies between notes but yield onset-wise representation by virtue of our novel edge contraction algorithm. Our results demonstrate that ChordGNN outperforms existing state-of-the-art models, achieving higher accuracy in Roman Numeral analysis on the reference datasets. In addition, we investigate variants of our model using proposed techniques such as NADE, and post-processing of the chord predictions. The full source code for this work is available at https://github.com/manoskary/chordgnn

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in assisting molecular property prediction tasks but often rely on human-crafted prompts and chain-of-thought templates. While recent advanced large reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 employ reinforcement learning for an extended ``thinking'' process, their reasoning can be verbose and lack relevance. We introduce AttriLens-Mol, an attribute-guided reinforcement learning framework for molecular property prediction with LLMs. AttriLens-Mol steers the model's reasoning by using: (1) a format reward encouraging attribute-based structured output, (2) a count reward to avoid enumerating irrelevant attributes, and (3) a rationality reward using advanced LLMs and RDKit to verify the relatedness of the generated attributes. This approach implicitly elicits the model's inherent knowledge of relevant molecular attributes during reasoning, enables making predictions for the molecular property more effectively. Experiments on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets show that, training both 7B-size R1-Distilled-Qwen2.5 and R1-Distilled-LLaMA3.1 models on 4,000 samples with our proposed AttriLens-Mol method significantly boosts the performance, getting comparable or better results than supervised fine-tuning models (Mol-Instructions, ChemDFM, etc.) and advanced models (GPT-3.5, GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3, DeepSeek-R1, etc.). Further, our extracted attributes for the target property, when used as features for an interpretable decision tree model, yield superior performance compared to attributes generated by prompting LLMs. This shows that AttriLens-Mol effectively elicits more relevant and predictive molecular attributes, leading to enhanced interpretability and performance for property prediction. We release the code in https://github.com/szu-tera/AttriLens-Mol.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential in predicting mental health outcomes from online text, yet traditional classification methods often lack interpretability and robustness. This study evaluates structured reasoning techniques-Chain-of-Thought (CoT), Self-Consistency (SC-CoT), and Tree-of-Thought (ToT)-to improve classification accuracy across multiple mental health datasets sourced from Reddit. We analyze reasoning-driven prompting strategies, including Zero-shot CoT and Few-shot CoT, using key performance metrics such as Balanced Accuracy, F1 score, and Sensitivity/Specificity. Our findings indicate that reasoning-enhanced techniques improve classification performance over direct prediction, particularly in complex cases. Compared to baselines such as Zero Shot non-CoT Prompting, and fine-tuned pre-trained transformers such as BERT and Mental-RoBerta, and fine-tuned Open Source LLMs such as Mental Alpaca and Mental-Flan-T5, reasoning-driven LLMs yield notable gains on datasets like Dreaddit (+0.52\% over M-LLM, +0.82\% over BERT) and SDCNL (+4.67\% over M-LLM, +2.17\% over BERT). However, performance declines in Depression Severity, and CSSRS predictions suggest dataset-specific limitations, likely due to our using a more extensive test set. Among prompting strategies, Few-shot CoT consistently outperforms others, reinforcing the effectiveness of reasoning-driven LLMs. Nonetheless, dataset variability highlights challenges in model reliability and interpretability. This study provides a comprehensive benchmark of reasoning-based LLM techniques for mental health text classification. It offers insights into their potential for scalable clinical applications while identifying key challenges for future improvements.

Pyrolysis techniques have served to be a groundbreaking technique for effectively utilising natural and man-made biomass products like plastics, wood, crop residue, fruit peels etc. Recent advancements have shown a greater yield of essential products like biochar, bio-oil and other non-condensable gases by blending different biomasses in a certain ratio. This synergy effect of combining two pyrolytic raw materials i.e co-pyrolysis of algae and wood biomass has been systematically studied and grouped into 3 phases in this research paper-kinetic analysis of co-pyrolysis, correlation among proximate and ultimate analysis with bio-char yield and lastly grouping of different weight ratios based on biochar yield up to a certain percentage. Different ML and DL algorithms have been utilized for regression and classification techniques to give a comprehensive overview of the effect of the synergy of two different biomass materials on biochar yield. For the first phase, the best prediction of biochar yield was obtained by using a decision tree regressor with a perfect MSE score of 0.00, followed by a gradient-boosting regressor. The second phase was analyzed using both ML and DL techniques. Within ML, SVR proved to be the most convenient model with an accuracy score of 0.972 with DNN employed for deep learning technique. Finally, for the third phase, binary classification was applied to biochar yield with and without heating rate for biochar yield percentage above and below 40%. The best technique for ML was Support Vector followed by Random forest while ANN was the most suitable Deep Learning Technique.

Recent advances in speech-aware language models have coupled strong acoustic encoders with large language models, enabling systems that move beyond transcription to produce richer outputs. Among these, word-level timestamp prediction is critical for applications such as captioning, media search, and multimodal synchronization, yet it is often handled by external alignment tools. In this work, we extend an existing speech-aware language model to predict timestamps directly alongside transcripts. We introduce a set of novel lightweight training strategies that improve alignment robustness while preserving recognition quality. Experiments across multiple datasets show that these strategies not only enhance timestamp accuracy, but also yield gains in overall ASR performance. Together, they demonstrate an efficient and unified approach to speech recognition with precise timestamp prediction.

Measuring soil health indicators is an important and challenging task that affects farmers' decisions on timing, placement, and quantity of fertilizers applied in the farms. Most existing methods to measure soil health indicators (SHIs) are in-lab wet chemistry or spectroscopy-based methods, which require significant human input and effort, time-consuming, costly, and are low-throughput in nature. To address this challenge, we develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven near real-time unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral sensing (UMS) solution to estimate total nitrogen (TN) of the soil, an important macro-nutrient or SHI that directly affects the crop health. Accurate prediction of soil TN can significantly increase crop yield through informed decision making on the timing of seed planting, and fertilizer quantity and timing. We train two machine learning models including multi-layer perceptron and support vector machine to predict the soil nitrogen using a suite of data classes including multispectral characteristics of the soil and crops in red, near-infrared, and green spectral bands, computed vegetation indices, and environmental variables including air temperature and relative humidity. To generate the ground-truth data or the training data for the machine learning models, we measure the total nitrogen of the soil samples (collected from a farm) using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS).

Developers and consumers increasingly choose reasoning language models (RLMs) based on their listed API prices. However, how accurately do these prices reflect actual inference costs? We conduct the first systematic study of this question, evaluating 8 frontier RLMs across 9 diverse tasks covering competition math, science QA, code generation, and multi-domain reasoning. We uncover the pricing reversal phenomenon: in 21.8% of model-pair comparisons, the model with a lower listed price actually incurs a higher total cost, with reversal magnitude reaching up to 28x. For example, Gemini 3 Flash's listed price is 78% cheaper than GPT-5.2's, yet its actual cost across all tasks is 22% higher. We trace the root cause to vast heterogeneity in thinking token consumption: on the same query, one model may use 900% more thinking tokens than another. In fact, removing thinking token costs reduces ranking reversals by 70% and raises the rank correlation (Kendall's τ ) between price and cost rankings from 0.563 to 0.873. We further show that per-query cost prediction is fundamentally difficult: repeated runs of the same query yield thinking token variation up to 9.7x, establishing an irreducible noise floor for any predictor. Our findings demonstrate that listed API pricing is an unreliable proxy for actual cost, calling for cost-aware model selection and transparent per-request cost monitoring.

Microbial swarming on mucosal surfaces reshapes microbial communities and influences mucosal healing and antibiotic tolerance. Yet even with time-lapse microscopy and deep learning, analyses of swarming colonies remain descriptive and cannot forecast how their fronts reorganize in time. This limitation is significant because the advancing edge determines access to nutrients, host tissue and competing microbes. We recast the expansion of Enterobacter sp. SM3 swarms as a problem of morphological forecasting, and assemble SwarmEvo, a time-lapse dataset represented as boundary-resolved segmentations. TexPol--Net, a texture- and geometry-aware segmentation model, sharpens diffuse edges and preserves fingered fronts, creating a stable substrate for dynamics. On this representation, we develop Morpher, an autoregressive forecasting network with a ``Morphon'' memory that links local curvature to long-range temporal dependencies. Morpher outperforms leading video-prediction models in maintaining front localization and anisotropic branching, and modest segmentation improvements yield noticeably more stable forecasts. Ablations across sequence models, inference strategies and observation ratios show that attention-based architectures with structural memory best preserve dense-finger propagation. By uniting geometry-aware segmentation with morphology-level forecasting, this framework turns swarming expansion into a predictive dynamical system, enabling quantitative interrogation and potential control of microbial collectives during mucosal repair and gut ecosystem engineering.

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) trained with next-word-prediction have achieved success as clinical foundation models. Representations from these language backbones yield strong linear probe performance across biomedical tasks, suggesting that patient semantics emerge from next-token prediction at scale. However, this paradigm treats patients as a document to be summarized rather than a dynamical system to be simulated; a patient's trajectory emerges from their state evolving under interventions and time, requiring models that simulate dynamics rather than predict tokens. To address this, we introduce SMB-Structure, a world model for structured EHR that grounds a joint-embedding prediction architecture (JEPA) with next-token prediction (SFT). SFT grounds our model to reconstruct future patient states in token space, while JEPA predicts those futures in latent space from the initial patient representation alone, forcing trajectory dynamics to be encoded before the next state is observed. We validate across two large-scale cohorts: Memorial Sloan Kettering (23,319 oncology patients; 323,000+ patient-years) and INSPECT (19,402 pulmonary embolism patients). Using a linear probe evaluated at multiple points along the disease trajectory, we demonstrate that our training paradigm learns embeddings that capture disease dynamics not recoverable by autoregressive baselines, enabling SMB-Structure to achieve competitive performance on complex tasks characterized by high patient heterogeneity. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/standardmodelbio/SMB-v1-1.7B-Structure.

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and unobserved confounding - which adversely affect both estimation accuracy and metric validity. Despite the importance of bias-aware assessment, a lack of systematic studies persists. To bridge this gap, we design a systematic benchmarking framework. Unlike standard predictive tasks, real-world uplift datasets lack counterfactual ground truth, rendering direct metric validation infeasible. Therefore, a semi-synthetic approach serves as a critical enabler for systematic benchmarking, effectively bridging the gap by retaining real-world feature dependencies while providing the ground truth needed to isolate structural biases. Our investigations reveal that: (i) uplift targeting and prediction can manifest as distinct objectives, where proficiency in one does not ensure efficacy in the other; (ii) while many models exhibit inconsistent performance under diverse biases, TARNet shows notable robustness, providing insights for subsequent model design; (iii) evaluation metric stability is linked to mathematical alignment with the ATE, suggesting that ATE-approximating metrics yield more consistent model rankings under structural data imperfections. These findings suggest the need for more robust uplift models and metrics. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems (IDS/IPS) in large enterprises can generate hundreds of thousands of alerts per hour, overwhelming analysts with logs requiring rapidly evolving expertise. Conventional machine-learning detectors reduce alert volume but still yield many false positives, while standard Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines often retrieve irrelevant context and fail to justify predictions. We present CyberRAG, a modular agent-based RAG framework that delivers real-time classification, explanation, and structured reporting for cyber-attacks. A central LLM agent orchestrates: (i) fine-tuned classifiers specialized by attack family; (ii) tool adapters for enrichment and alerting; and (iii) an iterative retrieval-and-reason loop that queries a domain-specific knowledge base until evidence is relevant and self-consistent. Unlike traditional RAG, CyberRAG adopts an agentic design that enables dynamic control flow and adaptive reasoning. This architecture autonomously refines threat labels and natural-language justifications, reducing false positives and enhancing interpretability. It is also extensible: new attack types can be supported by adding classifiers without retraining the core agent. CyberRAG was evaluated on SQL Injection, XSS, and SSTI, achieving over 94\% accuracy per class and a final classification accuracy of 94.92\% through semantic orchestration. Generated explanations reached 0.94 in BERTScore and 4.9/5 in GPT-4-based expert evaluation, with robustness preserved against adversarial and unseen payloads. These results show that agentic, specialist-oriented RAG can combine high detection accuracy with trustworthy, SOC-ready prose, offering a flexible path toward partially automated cyber-defense workflows.

End-to-end autonomous driving demonstrates strong planning capabilities with large-scale data but still struggles in complex, rare scenarios due to limited commonsense. In contrast, Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) excel in scene understanding and reasoning. The path forward lies in merging the strengths of both approaches. Previous methods using LVLMs to predict trajectories or control signals yield suboptimal results, as LVLMs are not well-suited for precise numerical predictions. This paper presents Senna, an autonomous driving system combining an LVLM (Senna-VLM) with an end-to-end model (Senna-E2E). Senna decouples high-level planning from low-level trajectory prediction. Senna-VLM generates planning decisions in natural language, while Senna-E2E predicts precise trajectories. Senna-VLM utilizes a multi-image encoding approach and multi-view prompts for efficient scene understanding. Besides, we introduce planning-oriented QAs alongside a three-stage training strategy, which enhances Senna-VLM's planning performance while preserving commonsense. Extensive experiments on two datasets show that Senna achieves state-of-the-art planning performance. Notably, with pre-training on a large-scale dataset DriveX and fine-tuning on nuScenes, Senna significantly reduces average planning error by 27.12% and collision rate by 33.33% over model without pre-training. We believe Senna's cross-scenario generalization and transferability are essential for achieving fully autonomous driving. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/hustvl/Senna.

Recovering the 3D scene geometry from a single view is a fundamental yet ill-posed problem in computer vision. While classical depth estimation methods infer only a 2.5D scene representation limited to the image plane, recent approaches based on radiance fields reconstruct a full 3D representation. However, these methods still struggle with occluded regions since inferring geometry without visual observation requires (i) semantic knowledge of the surroundings, and (ii) reasoning about spatial context. We propose KYN, a novel method for single-view scene reconstruction that reasons about semantic and spatial context to predict each point's density. We introduce a vision-language modulation module to enrich point features with fine-grained semantic information. We aggregate point representations across the scene through a language-guided spatial attention mechanism to yield per-point density predictions aware of the 3D semantic context. We show that KYN improves 3D shape recovery compared to predicting density for each 3D point in isolation. We achieve state-of-the-art results in scene and object reconstruction on KITTI-360, and show improved zero-shot generalization compared to prior work. Project page: https://ruili3.github.io/kyn.

Numerous datasets have been proposed to combat the spread of online hate. Despite these efforts, a majority of these resources are English-centric, primarily focusing on overt forms of hate. This research gap calls for developing high-quality corpora in diverse languages that also encapsulate more subtle hate expressions. This study introduces K-HATERS, a new corpus for hate speech detection in Korean, comprising approximately 192K news comments with target-specific offensiveness ratings. This resource is the largest offensive language corpus in Korean and is the first to offer target-specific ratings on a three-point Likert scale, enabling the detection of hate expressions in Korean across varying degrees of offensiveness. We conduct experiments showing the effectiveness of the proposed corpus, including a comparison with existing datasets. Additionally, to address potential noise and bias in human annotations, we explore a novel idea of adopting the Cognitive Reflection Test, which is widely used in social science for assessing an individual's cognitive ability, as a proxy of labeling quality. Findings indicate that annotations from individuals with the lowest test scores tend to yield detection models that make biased predictions toward specific target groups and are less accurate. This study contributes to the NLP research on hate speech detection and resource construction. The code and dataset can be accessed at https://github.com/ssu-humane/K-HATERS.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

The non-convexity of the artificial neural network (ANN) training landscape brings inherent optimization difficulties. While the traditional back-propagation stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm and its variants are effective in certain cases, they can become stuck at spurious local minima and are sensitive to initializations and hyperparameters. Recent work has shown that the training of an ANN with ReLU activations can be reformulated as a convex program, bringing hope to globally optimizing interpretable ANNs. However, naively solving the convex training formulation has an exponential complexity, and even an approximation heuristic requires cubic time. In this work, we characterize the quality of this approximation and develop two efficient algorithms that train ANNs with global convergence guarantees. The first algorithm is based on the alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM). It solves both the exact convex formulation and the approximate counterpart. Linear global convergence is achieved, and the initial several iterations often yield a solution with high prediction accuracy. When solving the approximate formulation, the per-iteration time complexity is quadratic. The second algorithm, based on the "sampled convex programs" theory, is simpler to implement. It solves unconstrained convex formulations and converges to an approximately globally optimal classifier. The non-convexity of the ANN training landscape exacerbates when adversarial training is considered. We apply the robust convex optimization theory to convex training and develop convex formulations that train ANNs robust to adversarial inputs. Our analysis explicitly focuses on one-hidden-layer fully connected ANNs, but can extend to more sophisticated architectures.

Generative models and vision encoders have largely advanced on separate tracks, optimized for different goals and grounded in different mathematical principles. Yet, they share a fundamental property: latent space Gaussianity. Generative models map Gaussian noise to images, while encoders map images to semantic embeddings whose coordinates empirically behave as Gaussian. We hypothesize that both are views of a shared latent source, the Universal Normal Embedding (UNE): an approximately Gaussian latent space from which encoder embeddings and DDIM-inverted noise arise as noisy linear projections. To test our hypothesis, we introduce NoiseZoo, a dataset of per-image latents comprising DDIM-inverted diffusion noise and matching encoder representations (CLIP, DINO). On CelebA, linear probes in both spaces yield strong, aligned attribute predictions, indicating that generative noise encodes meaningful semantics along linear directions. These directions further enable faithful, controllable edits (e.g., smile, gender, age) without architectural changes, where simple orthogonalization mitigates spurious entanglements. Taken together, our results provide empirical support for the UNE hypothesis and reveal a shared Gaussian-like latent geometry that concretely links encoding and generation. Code and data are available https://rbetser.github.io/UNE/

We introduce GUI-360^circ, a large-scale, comprehensive dataset and benchmark suite designed to advance computer-using agents (CUAs). CUAs present unique challenges and is constrained by three persistent gaps: a scarcity of real-world CUA tasks, the lack of automated collection-and-annotation pipelines for multi-modal trajectories, and the absence of a unified benchmark that jointly evaluates GUI grounding, screen parsing, and action prediction. GUI-360^circ addresses these gaps with an LLM-augmented, largely automated pipeline for query sourcing, environment-template construction, task instantiation, batched execution, and LLM-driven quality filtering. The released corpus contains over 1.2M executed action steps across thousands of trajectories in popular Windows office applications, and includes full-resolution screenshots, accessibility metadata when available, instantiated goals, intermediate reasoning traces, and both successful and failed action trajectories. The dataset supports three canonical tasks, GUI grounding, screen parsing, and action prediction, and a hybrid GUI+API action space that reflects modern agent designs. Benchmarking state-of-the-art vision--language models on GUI-360^circ reveals substantial out-of-the-box shortcomings in grounding and action prediction; supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning yield significant gains but do not close the gap to human-level reliability. We release GUI-360^circ and accompanying code to facilitate reproducible research and accelerate progress on robust desktop CUAs. The full dataset has been made public on https://huggingface.co/datasets/vyokky/GUI-360.

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

Open-vocabulary object detection (OVOD) aims to detect both seen and unseen categories, yet existing methods often struggle to generalize to novel objects due to limited integration of global and local contextual cues. We propose DetRefiner, a simple yet effective plug-and-play framework that learns to fuse global and local features to refine open-vocabulary detection. DetRefiner processes global image features and patch-level image features from foundational models (e.g., DINOv3) through a lightweight Transformer encoder. The encoder produces a class vector capturing image-level attributes and patch vectors representing local region attributes, from which attribute reliability is inferred to recalibrate the base model's confidence. Notably, DetRefiner is trained independently of the base OVOD model, requiring neither access to its internal features nor retraining. At inference, it operates solely on the base detector's predictions, producing auxiliary calibration scores that are merged with the base detector's scores to yield the final refined confidence. Despite this simplicity, DetRefiner consistently enhances multiple OVOD models across COCO, LVIS, ODinW13, and Pascal VOC, achieving gains of up to +10.1 AP on novel categories. These results highlight that learning to fuse global and local representations offers a powerful and general mechanism for advancing open-world object detection. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/hitachi-rd-cv/detrefiner.

Trajectory-Guided image-to-video (I2V) generation aims to synthesize videos that adhere to user-specified motion instructions. Existing methods typically rely on computationally expensive fine-tuning on scarce annotated datasets. Although some zero-shot methods attempt to trajectory control in the latent space, they may yield unrealistic motion by neglecting 3D perspective and creating a misalignment between the manipulated latents and the network's noise predictions. To address these challenges, we introduce Zo3T, a novel zero-shot test-time-training framework for trajectory-guided generation with three core innovations: First, we incorporate a 3D-Aware Kinematic Projection, leveraging inferring scene depth to derive perspective-correct affine transformations for target regions. Second, we introduce Trajectory-Guided Test-Time LoRA, a mechanism that dynamically injects and optimizes ephemeral LoRA adapters into the denoising network alongside the latent state. Driven by a regional feature consistency loss, this co-adaptation effectively enforces motion constraints while allowing the pre-trained model to locally adapt its internal representations to the manipulated latent, thereby ensuring generative fidelity and on-manifold adherence. Finally, we develop Guidance Field Rectification, which refines the denoising evolutionary path by optimizing the conditional guidance field through a one-step lookahead strategy, ensuring efficient generative progression towards the target trajectory. Zo3T significantly enhances 3D realism and motion accuracy in trajectory-controlled I2V generation, demonstrating superior performance over existing training-based and zero-shot approaches.

The focus of this paper is dynamic gesture recognition in the context of the interaction between humans and machines. We propose a model consisting of two sub-networks, a transformer and an ordered-neuron long-short-term-memory (ON-LSTM) based recurrent neural network (RNN). Each sub-network is trained to perform the task of gesture recognition using only skeleton joints. Since each sub-network extracts different types of features due to the difference in architecture, the knowledge can be shared between the sub-networks. Through knowledge distillation, the features and predictions from each sub-network are fused together into a new fusion classifier. In addition, a cyclical learning rate can be used to generate a series of models that are combined in an ensemble, in order to yield a more generalizable prediction. The proposed ensemble of knowledge-sharing models exhibits an overall accuracy of 86.11% using only skeleton information, as tested using the Dynamic Hand Gesture-14/28 dataset

Machine reading comprehension (MRC) is an AI challenge that requires machine to determine the correct answers to questions based on a given passage. MRC systems must not only answer question when necessary but also distinguish when no answer is available according to the given passage and then tactfully abstain from answering. When unanswerable questions are involved in the MRC task, an essential verification module called verifier is especially required in addition to the encoder, though the latest practice on MRC modeling still most benefits from adopting well pre-trained language models as the encoder block by only focusing on the "reading". This paper devotes itself to exploring better verifier design for the MRC task with unanswerable questions. Inspired by how humans solve reading comprehension questions, we proposed a retrospective reader (Retro-Reader) that integrates two stages of reading and verification strategies: 1) sketchy reading that briefly investigates the overall interactions of passage and question, and yield an initial judgment; 2) intensive reading that verifies the answer and gives the final prediction. The proposed reader is evaluated on two benchmark MRC challenge datasets SQuAD2.0 and NewsQA, achieving new state-of-the-art results. Significance tests show that our model is significantly better than the strong ELECTRA and ALBERT baselines. A series of analysis is also conducted to interpret the effectiveness of the proposed reader.

It is difficult to precisely annotate object instances and their semantics in 3D space, and as such, synthetic data are extensively used for these tasks, e.g., category-level 6D object pose and size estimation. However, the easy annotations in synthetic domains bring the downside effect of synthetic-to-real (Sim2Real) domain gap. In this work, we aim to address this issue in the task setting of Sim2Real, unsupervised domain adaptation for category-level 6D object pose and size estimation. We propose a method that is built upon a novel Deep Prior Deformation Network, shortened as DPDN. DPDN learns to deform features of categorical shape priors to match those of object observations, and is thus able to establish deep correspondence in the feature space for direct regression of object poses and sizes. To reduce the Sim2Real domain gap, we formulate a novel self-supervised objective upon DPDN via consistency learning; more specifically, we apply two rigid transformations to each object observation in parallel, and feed them into DPDN respectively to yield dual sets of predictions; on top of the parallel learning, an inter-consistency term is employed to keep cross consistency between dual predictions for improving the sensitivity of DPDN to pose changes, while individual intra-consistency ones are used to enforce self-adaptation within each learning itself. We train DPDN on both training sets of the synthetic CAMERA25 and real-world REAL275 datasets; our results outperform the existing methods on REAL275 test set under both the unsupervised and supervised settings. Ablation studies also verify the efficacy of our designs. Our code is released publicly at https://github.com/JiehongLin/Self-DPDN.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

The rapid advancement of large language models has intensified public concerns about the potential misuse. Therefore, it is important to build trustworthy AI-generated text detection systems. Existing methods neglect stylistic modeling and mostly rely on static thresholds, which greatly limits the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the Mixture of Stylistic Experts (MoSEs) framework that enables stylistics-aware uncertainty quantification through conditional threshold estimation. MoSEs contain three core components, namely, the Stylistics Reference Repository (SRR), the Stylistics-Aware Router (SAR), and the Conditional Threshold Estimator (CTE). For input text, SRR can activate the appropriate reference data in SRR and provide them to CTE. Subsequently, CTE jointly models the linguistic statistical properties and semantic features to dynamically determine the optimal threshold. With a discrimination score, MoSEs yields prediction labels with the corresponding confidence level. Our framework achieves an average improvement 11.34% in detection performance compared to baselines. More inspiringly, MoSEs shows a more evident improvement 39.15% in the low-resource case. Our code is available at https://github.com/creator-xi/MoSEs.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed via public-facing interfaces to interact with millions of users, each with diverse preferences. Despite this, preference tuning of LLMs predominantly relies on reward models trained using binary judgments where annotators select the preferred choice out of pairs of model outputs. In this work, we argue that this reliance on binary choices does not capture the broader, aggregate preferences of the target user in real-world tasks. We propose a taxonomy that identifies two dimensions of subjectivity where different users disagree on the preferred output-namely, the Plurality of Responses to Prompts, where prompts allow for multiple correct answers, and the Indistinguishability of Responses, where candidate outputs are paraphrases of each other. We show that reward models correlate weakly with user preferences in these cases. As a first step to address this issue, we introduce a simple yet effective method that augments existing binary preference datasets with synthetic preference judgments to estimate potential user disagreement. Incorporating these via a margin term as a form of regularization during model training yields predictions that better align with the aggregate user preferences.

Handwritten mathematical expression recognition (HMER) is a challenging task that has many potential applications. Recent methods for HMER have achieved outstanding performance with an encoder-decoder architecture. However, these methods adhere to the paradigm that the prediction is made "from one character to another", which inevitably yields prediction errors due to the complicated structures of mathematical expressions or crabbed handwritings. In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient method for HMER, which is the first to incorporate syntax information into an encoder-decoder network. Specifically, we present a set of grammar rules for converting the LaTeX markup sequence of each expression into a parsing tree; then, we model the markup sequence prediction as a tree traverse process with a deep neural network. In this way, the proposed method can effectively describe the syntax context of expressions, alleviating the structure prediction errors of HMER. Experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method achieves better recognition performance than prior arts. To further validate the effectiveness of our method, we create a large-scale dataset consisting of 100k handwritten mathematical expression images acquired from ten thousand writers. The source code, new dataset, and pre-trained models of this work will be publicly available.

We present TabPFN, a trained Transformer that can do supervised classification for small tabular datasets in less than a second, needs no hyperparameter tuning and is competitive with state-of-the-art classification methods. TabPFN performs in-context learning (ICL), it learns to make predictions using sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) given in the input, without requiring further parameter updates. TabPFN is fully entailed in the weights of our network, which accepts training and test samples as a set-valued input and yields predictions for the entire test set in a single forward pass. TabPFN is a Prior-Data Fitted Network (PFN) and is trained offline once, to approximate Bayesian inference on synthetic datasets drawn from our prior. This prior incorporates ideas from causal reasoning: It entails a large space of structural causal models with a preference for simple structures. On the 18 datasets in the OpenML-CC18 suite that contain up to 1 000 training data points, up to 100 purely numerical features without missing values, and up to 10 classes, we show that our method clearly outperforms boosted trees and performs on par with complex state-of-the-art AutoML systems with up to 230times speedup. This increases to a 5 700times speedup when using a GPU. We also validate these results on an additional 67 small numerical datasets from OpenML. We provide all our code, the trained TabPFN, an interactive browser demo and a Colab notebook at https://github.com/automl/TabPFN.

Ensuring logical consistency in predictions is a crucial yet overlooked aspect in multi-attribute classification. We explore the potential reasons for this oversight and introduce two pressing challenges to the field: 1) How can we ensure that a model, when trained with data checked for logical consistency, yields predictions that are logically consistent? 2) How can we achieve the same with data that hasn't undergone logical consistency checks? Minimizing manual effort is also essential for enhancing automation. To address these challenges, we introduce two datasets, FH41K and CelebA-logic, and propose LogicNet, an adversarial training framework that learns the logical relationships between attributes. Accuracy of LogicNet surpasses that of the next-best approach by 23.05%, 9.96%, and 1.71% on FH37K, FH41K, and CelebA-logic, respectively. In real-world case analysis, our approach can achieve a reduction of more than 50% in the average number of failed cases compared to other methods.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Mycotoxin contamination poses a significant risk to cereal crop quality, food safety, and agricultural productivity. Accurate prediction of mycotoxin levels can support early intervention strategies and reduce economic losses. This study investigates the use of neural networks and transfer learning models to predict mycotoxin contamination in Irish oat crops as a multi-response prediction task. Our dataset comprises oat samples collected in Ireland, containing a mix of environmental, agronomic, and geographical predictors. Five modelling approaches were evaluated: a baseline multilayer perceptron (MLP), an MLP with pre-training, and three transfer learning models; TabPFN, TabNet, and FT-Transformer. Model performance was evaluated using regression (RMSE, R^2) and classification (AUC, F1) metrics, with results reported per toxin and on average. Additionally, permutation-based variable importance analysis was conducted to identify the most influential predictors across both prediction tasks. The transfer learning approach TabPFN provided the overall best performance, followed by the baseline MLP. Our variable importance analysis revealed that weather history patterns in the 90-day pre-harvest period were the most important predictors, alongside seed moisture content.

Vision-driven field monitoring is central to digital agriculture, yet models built on general-domain pretrained backbones often fail to generalize across tasks, owing to the interaction of fine, variable canopy structures with fluctuating field conditions. We present FoMo4Wheat, one of the first crop-domain vision foundation model pretrained with self-supervision on ImAg4Wheat, the largest and most diverse wheat image dataset to date (2.5 million high-resolution images collected over a decade at 30 global sites, spanning >2,000 genotypes and >500 environmental conditions). This wheat-specific pretraining yields representations that are robust for wheat and transferable to other crops and weeds. Across ten in-field vision tasks at canopy and organ levels, FoMo4Wheat models consistently outperform state-of-the-art models pretrained on general-domain dataset. These results demonstrate the value of crop-specific foundation models for reliable in-field perception and chart a path toward a universal crop foundation model with cross-species and cross-task capabilities. FoMo4Wheat models and the ImAg4Wheat dataset are publicly available online: https://github.com/PheniX-Lab/FoMo4Wheat and https://huggingface.co/PheniX-Lab/FoMo4Wheat. The demonstration website is: https://fomo4wheat.phenix-lab.com/.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Despite significant progress of generative models in the natural sciences, their controllability remains challenging. One fundamentally missing aspect of molecular or protein generative models is an inductive bias that can reflect continuous properties of interest. To that end, we propose the Regression Transformer (RT), a novel method that abstracts regression as a conditional sequence modeling problem. This introduces a new paradigm of multitask language models which seamlessly bridge sequence regression and conditional sequence generation. We thoroughly demonstrate that, despite using a nominal-scale training objective, the RT matches or surpasses the performance of conventional regression models in property prediction tasks of small molecules, proteins and chemical reactions. Critically, priming the same model with continuous properties yields a highly competitive conditional generative model that outperforms specialized approaches in a substructure-constrained, property-driven molecule generation benchmark. Our dichotomous approach is facilitated by a novel, alternating training scheme that enables the model to decorate seed sequences by desired properties, e.g., to optimize reaction yield. In sum, the RT is the first report of a multitask model that concurrently excels at predictive and generative tasks in biochemistry. This finds particular application in property-driven, local exploration of the chemical or protein space and could pave the road toward foundation models in material design. The code to reproduce all experiments of the paper is available at: https://github.com/IBM/regression-transformer

The Bhutanese government is increasing its utilization of technological approaches such as including Remote Sensing-based knowledge in their decision-making process. This study focuses on crop type and crop extent in Paro, one of the top rice-yielding districts in Bhutan, and employs publicly available NICFI high-resolution satellite imagery from Planet. Two Deep Learning (DL) approaches, point-based (DNN) and patch-based (U-Net), models were used in conjunction with cloud-computing platforms. Three different models per DL approaches (DNN and U-Net) were trained: 1) RGBN channels from Planet; 2) RGBN and elevation data (RGBNE); 3) RGBN and Sentinel-1 (S1) data (RGBNS), and RGBN with E and S1 data (RGBNES). From this comprehensive analysis, the U-Net displayed higher performance metrics across both model training and model validation efforts. Among the U-Net model sets, the RGBN, RGBNE, RGBNS, and RGBNES models had an F1-score of 0.8546, 0.8563, 0.8467, and 0.8500 respectively. An independent model evaluation was performed and found a high level of performance variation across all the metrics. For this independent model evaluation, the U-Net RGBN, RGBNE, RGBNES, and RGBN models displayed the F1-scores of 0.5935, 0.6154, 0.5882, and 0.6582, suggesting U-Net RGBNES as the best model. The study shows that the DL approaches can predict rice. Also, DL methods can be used with the survey-based approaches currently utilized by the Bhutan Department of Agriculture. Further, this study demonstrated the usage of regional land cover products such as SERVIR's RLCMS as a weak label approach to capture different strata addressing the class imbalance problem and improving the sampling design for DL application. Finally, through preliminary model testing and comparisons outlined it was shown that using additional features such as NDVI, EVI, and NDWI did not drastically improve model performance.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Wheat management strategies play a critical role in determining yield. Traditional management decisions often rely on labour-intensive expert inspections, which are expensive, subjective and difficult to scale. Recently, Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have emerged as a promising solution to enable scalable, data-driven management support. However, due to a lack of domain-specific knowledge, directly applying VLMs to wheat management tasks results in poor quantification and reasoning capabilities, ultimately producing vague or even misleading management recommendations. In response, we propose WisWheat, a wheat-specific dataset with a three-layered design to enhance VLM performance on wheat management tasks: (1) a foundational pretraining dataset of 47,871 image-caption pairs for coarsely adapting VLMs to wheat morphology; (2) a quantitative dataset comprising 7,263 VQA-style image-question-answer triplets for quantitative trait measuring tasks; and (3) an Instruction Fine-tuning dataset with 4,888 samples targeting biotic and abiotic stress diagnosis and management plan for different phenological stages. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that fine-tuning open-source VLMs (e.g., Qwen2.5 7B) on our dataset leads to significant performance improvements. Specifically, the Qwen2.5 VL 7B fine-tuned on our wheat instruction dataset achieves accuracy scores of 79.2% and 84.6% on wheat stress and growth stage conversation tasks respectively, surpassing even general-purpose commercial models such as GPT-4o by a margin of 11.9% and 34.6%.

Agriculture is increasingly challenged by climate change, soil degradation, and resource depletion, and hence requires advanced data-driven crop classification and recommendation solutions. This work presents an explainable ensemble learning paradigm that fuses optimized feature pyramids, deep networks, self-attention mechanisms, and residual networks for bolstering crop suitability predictions based on soil characteristics (e.g., pH, nitrogen, potassium) and climatic conditions (e.g., temperature, rainfall). With a dataset comprising 3,867 instances and 29 features from the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency and NASA, the paradigm leverages preprocessing methods such as label encoding, outlier removal using IQR, normalization through StandardScaler, and SMOTE for balancing classes. A range of machine learning models such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machines, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and a new Relative Error Support Vector Machine are compared, with hyperparameter tuning through Grid Search and cross-validation. The suggested "Final Ensemble" meta-ensemble design outperforms with 98.80% accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, compared to individual models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (95.56% accuracy). Explainable AI methods, such as SHAP and permutation importance, offer actionable insights, highlighting critical features such as soil pH, nitrogen, and zinc. The paradigm addresses the gap between intricate ML models and actionable agricultural decision-making, fostering sustainability and trust in AI-powered recommendations

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

This research utilized three types of artificial neural network (ANN) methodologies, namely Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) with varied training, transfer, divide, and learning functions; Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN); and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), to forecast the severity of stem rust. It considered parameters such as mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, mean rainfall, mean average temperature, mean relative humidity, and different wheat varieties. The statistical analysis revealed that GRNN demonstrated effective predictive capability and required less training time compared to the other models. Additionally, the results indicated that total seasonal rainfall positively influenced the development of wheat stem rust. Keywords: Wheat stem rust, Back propagation neural network, Radial Basis Function Neural Network, General Regression Neural Network.

Farmers face several challenges when growing crops like uncertain irrigation, poor soil quality, etc. Especially in India, a major fraction of farmers do not have the knowledge to select appropriate crops and fertilizers. Moreover, crop failure due to disease causes a significant loss to the farmers, as well as the consumers. While there have been recent developments in the automated detection of these diseases using Machine Learning techniques, the utilization of Deep Learning has not been fully explored. Additionally, such models are not easy to use because of the high-quality data used in their training, lack of computational power, and poor generalizability of the models. To this end, we create an open-source easy-to-use web application to address some of these issues which may help improve crop production. In particular, we support crop recommendation, fertilizer recommendation, plant disease prediction, and an interactive news-feed. In addition, we also use interpretability techniques in an attempt to explain the prediction made by our disease detection model.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

A wide range of deep learning-based machine learning techniques are extensively applied to the design of high-entropy alloys (HEAs), yielding numerous valuable insights. Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) is a recently developed architecture that aims to improve both the accuracy and interpretability of input features. In this work, we explore three different datasets for HEA design and demonstrate the application of KAN for both classification and regression models. In the first example, we use a KAN classification model to predict the probability of single-phase formation in high-entropy carbide ceramics based on various properties such as mixing enthalpy and valence electron concentration. In the second example, we employ a KAN regression model to predict the yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of HEAs based on their chemical composition and process conditions including annealing time, cold rolling percentage, and homogenization temperature. The third example involves a KAN classification model to determine whether a certain composition is an HEA or non-HEA, followed by a KAN regressor model to predict the bulk modulus of the identified HEA, aiming to identify HEAs with high bulk modulus. In all three examples, KAN either outperform or match the performance in terms of accuracy such as F1 score for classification and Mean Square Error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for regression of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) by demonstrating the efficacy of KAN in handling both classification and regression tasks. We provide a promising direction for future research to explore advanced machine learning techniques, which lead to more accurate predictions and better interpretability of complex materials, ultimately accelerating the discovery and optimization of HEAs with desirable properties.

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

Acid mine drainage (AMD) is one of the common environmental problems in the coal mining industry that was formed by the oxidation of sulfide minerals in the overburden or waste rock. The prediction of acid generation through AMD is important to do in overburden management and planning the post-mining land use. One of the methods used to predict AMD is a lab-scale kinetic test to determine the rate of acid formation over time using representative samples in the field. However, this test requires a long-time procedure and large amount of chemical reagents lead to inefficient cost. On the other hand, there is potential for machine learning to learn the pattern behind the lab-scale kinetic test data. This study describes an approach to use artificial neural network (ANN) modeling to predict the result from lab-scale kinetic tests. Various ANN model is used based on 83 weeks experiments of lab-scale kinetic tests with 100\% potential acid-forming rock. The model approaches the monitoring of pH, ORP, conductivity, TDS, sulfate, and heavy metals (Fe and Mn). The overall Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) obtained in this study was 0.99 on training and validation data, indicating a strong correlation and accurate prediction compared to the actual lab-scale kinetic tests data. This show the ANN ability to learn patterns, trends, and seasonality from past data for accurate forecasting, thereby highlighting its significant contribution to solving AMD problems. This research is also expected to establish the foundation for a new approach to predict AMD, with time efficient, accurate, and cost-effectiveness in future applications.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

As global fertilizer application rates increase, high-quality datasets are paramount for comprehensive analyses to support informed decision-making and policy formulation in crucial areas such as food security or climate change. This study aims to fill existing data gaps by employing two machine learning models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and HistGradientBoosting algorithms to produce precise country-level predictions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P_2O_5), and potassium oxide (K_2O) application rates. Subsequently, we created a comprehensive dataset of 5-arcmin resolution maps depicting the application rates of each fertilizer for 13 major crop groups from 1961 to 2019. The predictions were validated by both comparing with existing databases and by assessing the drivers of fertilizer application rates using the model's SHapley Additive exPlanations. This extensive dataset is poised to be a valuable resource for assessing fertilization trends, identifying the socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental drivers of fertilizer application rates, and serving as an input for various applications, including environmental modeling, causal analysis, fertilizer price predictions, and forecasting.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Weather forecasting is critical for a range of human activities including transportation, agriculture, industry, as well as the safety of the general public. Machine learning models have the potential to transform the complex weather prediction pipeline, but current approaches still rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, limiting forecast speed and accuracy. Here we demonstrate that a machine learning model can replace the entire operational NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests raw observations and outputs global gridded forecasts and local station forecasts. Further, it can be optimised end-to-end to maximise performance over quantities of interest. Global forecasts outperform an operational NWP baseline for multiple variables and lead times. Local station forecasts are skillful up to ten days lead time and achieve comparable and often lower errors than a post-processed global NWP baseline and a state-of-the-art end-to-end forecasting system with input from human forecasters. These forecasts are produced with a remarkably simple neural process model using just 8% of the input data and three orders of magnitude less compute than existing NWP and hybrid AI-NWP methods. We anticipate that Aardvark Weather will be the starting point for a new generation of end-to-end machine learning models for medium-range forecasting that will reduce computational costs by orders of magnitude and enable the rapid and cheap creation of bespoke models for users in a variety of fields, including for the developing world where state-of-the-art local models are not currently available.

Reliable forecasts of the power output from variable renewable energy generators like solar photovoltaic systems are important to balancing load on real-time electricity markets and ensuring electricity supply reliability. However, solar PV power output is highly uncertain, with significant variations occurring over both longer (daily or seasonally) and shorter (within minutes) timescales due to weather conditions, especially cloud cover. This paper builds on existing work that uses convolutional neural networks in the computer vision task of predicting (in a Nowcast model) and forecasting (in a Forecast model) solar PV power output (Stanford EAO SUNSET Model). A pure transformer architecture followed by a fully-connected layer is applied to one year of image data with experiments run on various combinations of learning rate and batch size. We find that the transformer architecture performs almost as well as the baseline model in the PV output prediction task. However, it performs worse on sunny days.

Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs - a setting where general-purpose models struggle without task-specific adaptation. We introduce an end-to-end framework that trains LLMs to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts using realized disruption outcomes as supervision. The resulting model substantially outperforms strong baselines - including GPT-5 - on accuracy, calibration, and precision. We also show that training induces more structured and reliable probabilistic reasoning without explicit prompting. These results suggest a general pathway for training domain-specific forecasting models that produce decision-ready signals. To support transparency we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/supply-chain-predictions

Designing robust systems for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. Even more challenging is to build a system for constructing an optimum portfolio of stocks based on the forecasted future stock prices. We present a deep learning-based regression model built on a long-and-short-term memory network (LSTM) network that automatically scraps the web and extracts historical stock prices based on a stock's ticker name for a specified pair of start and end dates, and forecasts the future stock prices. We deploy the model on 75 significant stocks chosen from 15 critical sectors of the Indian stock market. For each of the stocks, the model is evaluated for its forecast accuracy. Moreover, the predicted values of the stock prices are used as the basis for investment decisions, and the returns on the investments are computed. Extensive results are presented on the performance of the model. The analysis of the results demonstrates the efficacy and effectiveness of the system and enables us to compare the profitability of the sectors from the point of view of the investors in the stock market.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

The ionosphere electromagnetic activity is a major factor of the quality of satellite telecommunications, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and other vital space applications. Being able to forecast globally the Total Electron Content (TEC) would enable a better anticipation of potential performance degradations. A few studies have proposed models able to predict the TEC locally, but not worldwide for most of them. Thanks to a large record of past TEC maps publicly available, we propose a method based on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to forecast a sequence of global TEC maps consecutive to an input sequence of TEC maps, without introducing any prior knowledge other than Earth rotation periodicity. By combining several state-of-the-art architectures, the proposed approach is competitive with previous works on TEC forecasting while predicting the TEC globally.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional input sequence derived from preceding data to improve model performance. Two specialized GANs models, the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Tail Generative Adversarial Network (Tail-GAN), were evaluated under the FE-GAN framework. The results demonstrate that FE-GAN significantly outperforms traditional architectures in both VaR and ES estimation. Tail-GAN, leveraging its task-specific loss function, consistently outperforms WGAN in ES estimation, while both models exhibit similar performance in VaR estimation. Despite these promising results, the study acknowledges limitations, including reliance on highly correlated temporal data and restricted applicability to other domains. Future research directions include exploring alternative input generation methods, dynamic forecasting models, and advanced neural network architectures to further enhance GANs-based financial risk estimation.