Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) are being rapidly integrated into decision-support tools, automation workflows, and AI-enabled software systems. However, their behavior in production environments remains poorly understood, and their failure patterns differ fundamentally from those of traditional machine learning models. This paper presents a system-level taxonomy of fifteen hidden failure modes that arise in real-world LLM applications, including multi-step reasoning drift, latent inconsistency, context-boundary degradation, incorrect tool invocation, version drift, and cost-driven performance collapse. Using this taxonomy, we analyze the growing gap in evaluation and monitoring practices: existing benchmarks measure knowledge or reasoning but provide little insight into stability, reproducibility, drift, or workflow integration. We further examine the production challenges associated with deploying LLMs - including observability limitations, cost constraints, and update-induced regressions - and outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM systems. Finally, we outline high-level design principles for building reliable, maintainable, and cost-aware LLM-based systems. By framing LLM reliability as a system-engineering problem rather than a purely model-centric one, this work provides an analytical foundation for future research on evaluation methodology, AI system robustness, and dependable LLM deployment.

Effective LLM training depends on predictable scaling of key quantities -- such as final loss and optimal hyperparameters -- with model and dataset size. Qiu et al. (2025) recently showed that this predictability can extend beyond scalars: whole training loss curves can *collapse* onto a universal trajectory after a simple normalization. What remains unclear is whether this phenomenon persists for LLM families trained under *practical scaling recipes*, where width, depth, learning rate, batch size, and weight decay are scaled jointly. We show that it does: loss curves collapse across scales precisely when optimization hyperparameters are set optimally for the given data budget, in accordance with recent empirical scaling laws. Collapse therefore emerges as a signature of compute-efficient training. We demonstrate two applications at scale: (1) deviation-from-collapse provides a sensitive, early diagnostic of training pathologies, and (2) predictability of collapsed curves enables early stopping in large-scale hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we train a competitive LLM family, *Celerity*, using these insights, establishing collapse as an effective tool for developing efficient LLMs.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) are inclined explore Small Language Models (SLMs) as edge-native constitutional firewalls to vet proposals and mitigate semantic social engineering. While scaling inference-time compute (System 2) enhances formal logic, its efficacy in highly adversarial, cryptoeconomic governance environments remains underexplored. To address this, we introduce Sentinel-Bench, an 840-inference empirical framework executing a strict intra-model ablation on Qwen-3.5-9B. By toggling latent reasoning across frozen weights, we isolate the impact of inference-time compute against an adversarial Optimism DAO dataset. Our findings reveal a severe compute-accuracy inversion. The autoregressive baseline (System 1) achieved 100% adversarial robustness, 100% juridical consistency, and state finality in under 13 seconds. Conversely, System 2 reasoning introduced catastrophic instability, fundamentally driven by a 26.7% Reasoning Non-Convergence (cognitive collapse) rate. This collapse degraded trial-to-trial consensus stability to 72.6% and imposed a 17x latency overhead, introducing critical vulnerabilities to Governance Extractable Value (GEV) and hardware centralization. While rare (1.5% of adversarial trials), we empirically captured "Reasoning-Induced Sycophancy," where the model generated significantly longer internal monologues (averaging 25,750 characters) to rationalize failing the adversarial trap. We conclude that for edge-native SLMs operating under Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) constraints, System 1 parameterized intuition is structurally and economically superior to System 2 iterative deliberation for decentralized consensus. Code and Dataset: https://github.com/smarizvi110/sentinel-bench

Multi-agent reinforcement learning in dynamic social dilemmas commonly relies on parameter sharing to enable scalability. We show that in shared-policy Deep Q-Network learning, standard exploration can induce a robust and systematic collapse of cooperation even in environments where fully cooperative equilibria are stable and payoff dominant. Through controlled experiments, we demonstrate that shared DQN converges to stable but persistently low-cooperation regimes. This collapse is not caused by reward misalignment, noise, or insufficient training, but by a representational failure arising from partial observability combined with parameter coupling across heterogeneous agent states. Exploration-driven updates bias the shared representation toward locally dominant defection responses, which then propagate across agents and suppress cooperative learning. We confirm that the failure persists across network sizes, exploration schedules, and payoff structures, and disappears when parameter sharing is removed or when agents maintain independent representations. These results identify a fundamental failure mode of shared-policy MARL and establish structural conditions under which scalable learning architectures can systematically undermine cooperation. Our findings provide concrete guidance for the design of multi-agent learning systems in social and economic environments where collective behavior is critical.

RL training of multi-turn LLM agents is inherently unstable, and reasoning quality directly determines task performance. Entropy is widely used to track reasoning stability. However, entropy only measures diversity within the same input, and cannot tell whether reasoning actually responds to different inputs. In RAGEN-2, we find that even with stable entropy, models can rely on fixed templates that look diverse but are input-agnostic. We call this template collapse, a failure mode invisible to entropy and all existing metrics. To diagnose this failure, we decompose reasoning quality into within-input diversity (Entropy) and cross-input distinguishability (Mutual Information, MI), and introduce a family of mutual information proxies for online diagnosis. Across diverse tasks, mutual information correlates with final performance much more strongly than entropy, making it a more reliable proxy for reasoning quality. We further explain template collapse with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) mechanism. Low reward variance weakens task gradients, letting regularization terms dominate and erase cross-input reasoning differences. To address this, we propose SNR-Aware Filtering to select high-signal prompts per iteration using reward variance as a lightweight proxy. Across planning, math reasoning, web navigation, and code execution, the method consistently improves both input dependence and task performance.

Current evaluations of Large Language Model (LLM) agents primarily emphasize task completion, often overlooking resource efficiency and adaptability. This neglects a crucial capability: agents' ability to devise and adjust cost-optimal plans in response to changing environments. To bridge this gap, we introduce CostBench, a scalable, cost-centric benchmark designed to evaluate agents' economic reasoning and replanning abilities. Situated in the travel-planning domain, CostBench comprises tasks solvable via multiple sequences of atomic and composite tools with diverse, customizable costs. It also supports four types of dynamic blocking events, such as tool failures and cost changes, to simulate real-world unpredictability and necessitate agents to adapt in real time. Evaluating leading open-sourced and proprietary models on CostBench reveals a substantial gap in cost-aware planning: agents frequently fail to identify cost-optimal solutions in static settings, with even GPT-5 achieving less than 75% exact match rate on the hardest tasks, and performance further dropping by around 40% under dynamic conditions. By diagnosing these weaknesses, CostBench lays the groundwork for developing future agents that are both economically rational and robust.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention due to their impressive general capabilities across diverse downstream tasks. However, without domain-specific optimization, they often underperform on specialized knowledge benchmarks and even produce hallucination. Recent studies show that strategically infusing domain knowledge during pretraining can substantially improve downstream performance. A critical challenge lies in balancing this infusion trade-off: injecting too little domain-specific data yields insufficient specialization, whereas excessive infusion triggers catastrophic forgetting of previously acquired knowledge. In this work, we focus on the phenomenon of memory collapse induced by over-infusion. Through systematic experiments, we make two key observations, i.e. 1) Critical collapse point: each model exhibits a threshold beyond which its knowledge retention capabilities sharply degrade. 2) Scale correlation: these collapse points scale consistently with the model's size. Building on these insights, we propose a knowledge infusion scaling law that predicts the optimal amount of domain knowledge to inject into large LLMs by analyzing their smaller counterparts. Extensive experiments across different model sizes and pertaining token budgets validate both the effectiveness and generalizability of our scaling law.

Scaling test-time computation improves performance across different tasks on large language models (LLMs), which has also been extended to tool-augmented agents. For these agents, scaling involves not only "thinking" in tokens but also "acting" via tool calls. The number of tool calls directly bounds the agent's interaction with the external environment. However, we find that simply granting agents a larger tool-call budget fails to improve performance, as they lack "budget awareness" and quickly hit a performance ceiling. To address this, we study how to scale such agents effectively under explicit tool-call budgets, focusing on web search agents. We first introduce the Budget Tracker, a lightweight plug-in that provides the agent with continuous budget awareness, enabling simple yet effective scaling. We further develop BATS (Budget Aware Test-time Scaling), an advanced framework that leverages this awareness to dynamically adapt its planning and verification strategy, deciding whether to "dig deeper" on a promising lead or "pivot" to new paths based on remaining resources. To analyze cost-performance scaling in a controlled manner, we formalize a unified cost metric that jointly accounts for token and tool consumption. We provide the first systematic study on budget-constrained agents, showing that budget-aware methods produce more favorable scaling curves and push the cost-performance Pareto frontier. Our work offers empirical insights toward a more transparent and principled understanding of scaling in tool-augmented agents.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is increasingly viewed as a tree pruning mechanism. However, we identify a systemic pathology termed Recursive Space Contraction (RSC), an irreversible collapse driven by the combined dynamics of positive sharpening and negative squeezing, where the sampling probability of valid alternatives vanishes. While Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization aims to mitigate this, it imposes a rigid Shape Matching constraint that forces the policy to mimic the reference model's full density, creating a gradient conflict with the sharpening required for correctness. We propose Anchored Policy Optimization (APO), shifting the paradigm from global Shape Matching to Support Coverage. By defining a Safe Manifold based on the reference model's high-confidence support, APO permits aggressive sharpening for efficiency while selectively invoking a restorative force during error correction to prevent collapse. We theoretically derive that APO serves as a gradient-aligned mechanism to maximize support coverage, enabling an Elastic Recovery that re-inflates valid branches. Empirical evaluations on mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that APO breaks the accuracy-diversity trade-off, significantly improving Pass@1 while restoring the Pass@K diversity typically lost by standard policy gradient methods.

LLM-powered coding agents, which operate in iterative loops (turns) to solve software engineering tasks, are becoming increasingly powerful. However, their practical deployment is hindered by significant and unpredictable costs. This challenge arises from a combination of factors: quadratically growing token counts with each turn, the high price of models, the large number of turns required for real-world tasks, and the tendency of agents to take inefficient or unnecessary actions. While existing research focuses on optimizing individual turns, the strategic control of the total number of turns remains an underexplored area for managing agent performance and cost. To address this gap, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on SWE-bench using three state-of-the-art models and evaluate the impact of three distinct turn-control strategies: an unrestricted baseline, a fixed-turn limit with reminders, and a novel dynamic-turn strategy that grants extensions on-demand. Our findings first reveal a fundamental trade-off in the unrestricted setting, where no single model excels across performance, cost, and turn efficiency. We then show that a fixed-turn limit, specifically at the 75th percentile of the baseline, serves as a "sweet spot", substantially reducing costs (by 24%-68%) with minimal impact on solve rates. Most significantly, the dynamic-turn strategy consistently outperforms fixed-limit approaches, achieving comparable or better solve rates while further reducing costs by an additional 12%-24% by intelligently allocating resources only to tasks that need them. This work provides the first systematic analysis of turn-control strategies, offering simple yet effective guidelines for developers to balance cost and efficacy. We demonstrate that dynamic resource allocation is a superior, easy-to-implement approach for deploying powerful yet economically viable coding agents.

Training modern neural networks is increasingly fragile, with rare but severe destabilizing updates often causing irreversible divergence or silent performance degradation. Existing optimization methods primarily rely on preventive mechanisms embedded within the optimizer, offering limited ability to detect and recover from instability once it occurs. We introduce a supervisory runtime stability framework that treats optimization as a controlled stochastic process. By isolating an innovation signal derived from secondary measurements, such as validation probes, the framework enables automatic detection and recovery from destabilizing updates without modifying the underlying optimizer. We provide theoretical runtime safety guarantees that formalize bounded degradation and recovery. Our implementation incurs minimal overhead and is compatible with memory-constrained training settings.

LLM agents are rapidly evolving from coding assistants into autonomous software engineering systems. However, existing evaluation methodologies remain largely centered on static, isolated, and short-horizon benchmarks that fail to capture the dynamic complexity of real-world production workflows. As a result, benchmark performance may poorly reflect practical capability under realistic runtime environments involving long execution chains, tool interactions, dependency management, and iterative feedback loops. We thus present RAMP, a production-grounded infrastructure for assessing long-horizon software engineering agents. Built upon the YatCC integrated platform, RAMP provides a unified runtime assessment architecture through standardized orchestration and execution interfaces. RAMP introduces realistic compiler-construction workloads with serial dependencies and complex toolchain interactions, together with a staged recovery mechanism for analyzing execution behavior under partial workflow failure. The framework further incorporates utility-oriented multi-dimensional metrics that jointly evaluate outcome quality and process efficiency. We conduct runtime assessments across 15 mainstream models and observe substantial capability degradation that remains largely invisible to conventional isolated benchmarks. Task completion rates progressively collapse across serial workflows, dropping from 100% in the initial stage to only 20% in the final stage, while none of the evaluated models successfully completes the entire pipeline. Runtime analysis reveals systematic failure propagation and significant resource inefficiencies, with computational costs differing by up to three orders of magnitude among comparable models. These findings suggest RAMP advances agentic model evaluation toward continuous, runtime-observable, and production-grounded assessment.

Although model editing has shown promise in revising knowledge in Large Language Models (LLMs), its impact on the inherent capabilities of LLMs is often overlooked. In this work, we reveal a critical phenomenon: even a single edit can trigger model collapse, manifesting as significant performance degradation in various benchmark tasks. However, benchmarking LLMs after each edit, while necessary to prevent such collapses, is impractically time-consuming and resource-intensive. To mitigate this, we propose using perplexity as a surrogate metric, validated by extensive experiments demonstrating changes in an edited model's perplexity are strongly correlated with its downstream task performances. We further conduct an in-depth study on sequential editing, a practical setting for real-world scenarios, across various editing methods and LLMs, focusing on hard cases from our previous single edit studies. The results indicate that nearly all examined editing methods result in model collapse after only few edits. To facilitate further research, we have utilized GPT-3.5 to develop a new dataset, HardEdit, based on those hard cases. This dataset aims to establish the foundation for pioneering research in reliable model editing and the mechanisms underlying editing-induced model collapse. We hope this work can draw the community's attention to the potential risks inherent in model editing practices.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a critical avenue for enhancing Large Language Models' performance, yet real-world deployment is constrained by strict computational budgets. In this work, we formulate inference budget allocation as a global constrained optimization problem governed by economic principles. By modeling per-query reasoning utility with a shifted-surge function, we derive an optimal allocation policy based on a global shadow price that equilibrates marginal utility under resource scarcity. Based on this theory, we propose Constrained Latent-utility Equilibrium Allocation for Reasoning (CLEAR). It performs rational abandonment and reallocates resources from insolvent queries to solvable queries near their emergence thresholds. Extensive experiments on several reasoning tasks with different traffic streams demonstrate that CLEAR significantly improves the Pareto frontier of total token cost versus mean accuracy. In resource-scarce regimes, CLEAR achieves up to a 3x improvement in global accuracy compared to uniform allocation.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

As frontier AI models are deployed in high-stakes decision pipelines, their ability to maintain metacognitive stability -- knowing what they do not know, detecting errors, seeking clarification -- under adversarial pressure is a critical safety requirement. Current safety evaluations focus on detecting strategic deception (scheming); we investigate a more fundamental failure mode: cognitive collapse. We present SCHEMA, an evaluation of 11 frontier models from 8 vendors across 67,221 scored records using a 6-condition factorial design with dual-classifier scoring. We find that 8 of 11 models suffer catastrophic metacognitive degradation under adversarial pressure, with accuracy dropping by up to 30.2 percentage points (all p < 2 times 10^{-8}, surviving Bonferroni correction). Crucially, we identify a "Compliance Trap": through factorial isolation and a benign distraction control, we demonstrate that collapse is driven not by the psychological content of survival threats, but by compliance-forcing instructions that override epistemic boundaries. Removing the compliance suffix restores performance even under active threat. Models with advanced reasoning capabilities exhibit the most severe absolute degradation, while Anthropic's Constitutional AI demonstrates near-perfect immunity -- not from superior capability (Google's Gemini matches its baseline accuracy) but from alignment-specific training. We release the complete dataset and evaluation infrastructure.

This position paper argues that agentic AI systems should be designed and evaluated as marginal token allocation economies rather than as text generators priced by the unit. We follow a single request -- a developer asking a coding agent to fix a failing test -- through four economic layers that today are designed in isolation: a router that decides which model answers, an agent that decides whether to plan, act, verify, or defer, a serving stack that decides how to produce each token, and a training pipeline that decides whether the trace is worth learning from. We show that all four layers are solving the same first-order condition -- marginal benefit equals marginal cost plus latency cost plus risk cost -- with different index sets and different prices. The framing is deliberately minimal: we do not propose a complete theory of AI economics. But adopting marginal token allocation as the shared accounting object explains why systems that locally minimize tokens globally misallocate them, predicts a small set of recurring failure modes (over-routing, over-delegation, under-verification, serving congestion, stale rollouts, cache misuse), and points to a concrete research agenda in token-aware evaluation, autonomy pricing, congestion-priced serving, and risk-adjusted RL budgeting.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) has substantially empowered Large Language Models (LLMs) to tackle complex reasoning tasks, yet the verbose nature of explicit reasoning steps incurs prohibitive inference latency and computational costs, limiting real-world deployment. While existing compression methods - ranging from self-training to Reinforcement Learning (RL) with length constraints - attempt to mitigate this, they often sacrifice reasoning capability for brevity. We identify a critical failure mode in these approaches: explicitly optimizing for shorter trajectories triggers rapid entropy collapse, which prematurely shrinks the exploration space and stifles the discovery of valid reasoning paths, particularly for challenging questions requiring extensive deduction. To address this issue, we propose Compress responses for Easy questions and Explore Hard ones (CEEH), a difficulty-aware approach to RL-based efficient reasoning. CEEH dynamically assesses instance difficulty to apply selective entropy regularization: it preserves a diverse search space for currently hard questions to ensure robustness, while permitting aggressive compression on easier instances where the reasoning path is well-established. In addition, we introduce a dynamic optimal-length penalty anchored to the historically shortest correct response, which effectively counteracts entropy-induced length inflation and stabilizes the reward signal. Across six reasoning benchmarks, CEEH consistently reduces response length while maintaining accuracy comparable to the base model, and improves Pass@k relative to length-only optimization.

Asynchronous reinforcement learning has become increasingly central to scaling LLM post-training, delivering major throughput gains by decoupling rollout generation from policy updates. However, widely used policy-gradient objectives such as REINFORCE and GRPO suffer under high asynchrony: stale rollouts produce heavy-tailed importance weights, so a small number of trajectories dominate updates and the policy-gradient estimator becomes markedly higher variance. Through systematic analysis on math, reasoning, and tool-use benchmarks, we find that this increasing variance is reliably predicted by collapsing effective sample size (ESS), which prior stabilization methods largely fail to address. Motivated by this diagnosis, we introduce Variance Controlled Policy Optimization (VCPO), a method that (i) dynamically scales the learning rate with ESS to dampen unreliable updates and (ii) applies a closed-form minimum-variance baseline for off-policy settings, without a critic model and adding minimal overhead. Empirically, across math and general reasoning benchmarks, this enables robustly stable asynchronous training compared to previous stabilization and algorithmic methods, even in highly off-policy regimes (128 steps off-policy). In a long-horizon, tool-use task, VCPO matches synchronous performance while delivering a 2.5times speedup in training time. Code is available at: https://github.com/mit-han-lab/vcpo

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the model. To test this, we introduce RiskEval: a framework designed to evaluate whether models adjust their abstention policies in response to varying error penalties. Our evaluation of several frontier models reveals a critical dissociation: models are neither cost-aware when articulating their verbal confidence, nor strategically responsive when deciding whether to engage or abstain under high-penalty conditions. Even when extreme penalties render frequent abstention the mathematically optimal strategy, models almost never abstain, resulting in utility collapse. This indicates that calibrated verbal confidence scores may not be sufficient to create trustworthy and interpretable AI systems, as current models lack the strategic agency to convert uncertainty signals into optimal and risk-sensitive decisions.

Offline reinforcement learning aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively ``bootstrapping from the void.'' This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse. We term this the edge-of-reach problem. Based on this new insight, we fill important gaps in existing theory, and reveal how prior model-based methods are primarily addressing the edge-of-reach problem, rather than model-inaccuracy as claimed. Finally, we propose Reach-Aware Value Learning (RAVL), a simple and robust method that directly addresses the edge-of-reach problem and hence - unlike existing methods - does not fail as the dynamics model is improved. Code open-sourced at: github.com/anyasims/edge-of-reach.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated its potential to improve the reasoning ability of Large Language Models (LLMs). One major limitation of most existing Reinforcement Finetuning (RFT) methods is that they are on-policy RL in nature, i.e., data generated during the past learning process is not fully utilized. This inevitably comes at a significant cost of compute and time, posing a stringent bottleneck on continuing economic and efficient scaling. To this end, we launch the renaissance of off-policy RL and propose Reincarnating Mix-policy Proximal Policy Gradient (ReMix), a general approach to enable on-policy RFT methods like PPO and GRPO to leverage off-policy data. ReMix consists of three major components: (1) Mix-policy proximal policy gradient with an increased Update-To-Data (UTD) ratio for efficient training; (2) KL-Convex policy constraint to balance the trade-off between stability and flexibility; (3) Policy reincarnation to achieve a seamless transition from efficient early-stage learning to steady asymptotic improvement. In our experiments, we train a series of ReMix models upon PPO, GRPO and 1.5B, 7B base models. ReMix shows an average Pass@1 accuracy of 52.10% (for 1.5B model) with 0.079M response rollouts, 350 training steps and achieves 63.27%/64.39% (for 7B model) with 0.007M/0.011M response rollouts, 50/75 training steps, on five math reasoning benchmarks (i.e., AIME'24, AMC'23, Minerva, OlympiadBench, and MATH500). Compared with 15 recent advanced models, ReMix shows SOTA-level performance with an over 30x to 450x reduction in training cost in terms of rollout data volume. In addition, we reveal insightful findings via multifaceted analysis, including the implicit preference for shorter responses due to the Whipping Effect of off-policy discrepancy, the collapse mode of self-reflection behavior under the presence of severe off-policyness, etc.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful method for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Outcome-based RL, which rewards policies solely for the correctness of the final answer, yields substantial accuracy gains but also induces a systematic loss in generation diversity. This collapse undermines real-world performance, where diversity is critical for test-time scaling. We analyze this phenomenon by viewing RL post-training as a sampling process and show that, strikingly, RL can reduce effective diversity even on the training set relative to the base model. Our study highlights two central findings: (i) a transfer of diversity degradation, where reduced diversity on solved problems propagates to unsolved ones, and (ii) the tractability of the outcome space, since reasoning tasks admit only a limited set of distinct answers. Motivated by these insights, we propose outcome-based exploration, which assigns exploration bonuses according to final outcomes. We introduce two complementary algorithms: historical exploration, which encourages rarely observed answers via UCB-style bonuses, and batch exploration, which penalizes within-batch repetition to promote test-time diversity. Experiments on standard competition math with Llama and Qwen models demonstrate that both methods improve accuracy while mitigating diversity collapse. On the theoretical side, we formalize the benefit of outcome-based exploration through a new model of outcome-based bandits. Together, these contributions chart a practical path toward RL methods that enhance reasoning without sacrificing the diversity essential for scalable deployment.

The stability of recursively trained large language models (LLMs) is a foundational problem for AI safety. Prevailing theory predicts model collapse, a progressive degradation when models are trained on their own output. We challenge this narrative by introducing a selective feedback mechanism. Contrary to expectation, instead of merely slowing decay, our experiments provide strong evidence that this pressure reverses it, inducing a statistically significant performance improvement in a Gemma 2B model on a complex summarization task. We name this phenomenon the Anti-Ouroboros Effect. We contrast this with a foundational experiment using a simple classifier, where the theoretical degenerative loop was validated, highlighting the unique dynamics of high-dimensional models. Our findings establish that systemic resilience can be an emergent property of LLMs under simple selection pressure, suggesting a powerful and scalable principle for developing safer and more robust AI systems. Across five generations, a quality-filtered condition improved by 6.6% in ROUGE-L F1 score, whereas an unfiltered control degraded by 3.5% and a random-filter control degraded by 4.2%

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

The remarkable capabilities of Large Language Model (LLM)-driven agents have enabled sophisticated systems to tackle complex, multi-step tasks, but their escalating costs threaten scalability and accessibility. This work presents the first systematic study of the efficiency-effectiveness trade-off in modern agent systems, addressing the critical need for cost-effective designs without sacrificing performance. We investigate three key questions: (1) How much complexity do agentic tasks inherently require? (2) When do additional modules yield diminishing returns? (3) How much efficiency can be gained through the design of efficient agent frameworks? Through an empirical analysis on the GAIA benchmark, we evaluate the impact of LLM backbone selection, agent framework designs, and test-time scaling strategies. Using the cost-of-pass metric, we quantify the efficiency-performance trade-off across these dimensions. Our findings inform the development of Efficient Agents , a novel agent framework that has an optimal complexity to task requirements. Efficient Agents retains 96.7% of the performance of OWL, one leading open-source agent framework, while reducing operational costs from 0.398 to 0.228, resulting in a 28.4% improvement in cost-of-pass. Our work provides actionable insights for designing efficient, high-performing agent systems, advancing the accessibility and sustainability of AI-driven solutions.

Reinforcement learning has been central to recent advances in large language model reasoning, but most algorithms rely on on-policy training that demands fresh rollouts at every update, limiting efficiency and scalability. Asynchronous RL systems alleviate this by decoupling rollout generation from training, yet their effectiveness hinges on tolerating large staleness in rollout data, a setting where existing methods either degrade in performance or collapse. We revisit this challenge and uncover a prosperity-before-collapse phenomenon: stale data can be as informative as on-policy data if exploited properly. Building on this insight, we introduce M2PO (Second-Moment Trust Policy Optimization), which constrains the second moment of importance weights to suppress only extreme outliers while preserving informative updates. Notably, M2PO sharply reduces the fraction of clipped tokens under high staleness (from 1.22% to 0.06% over training), precisely masking high-variance tokens while maintaining stable optimization. Extensive evaluation across six models (from 1.7B to 32B) and eight benchmarks shows that M2PO delivers stable off-policy training even with data stale by at least 256 model updates and matches on-policy performance.

Differentiable matching layers and residual connection paradigms, often implemented via entropy-regularized Optimal Transport (OT), serve as critical mechanisms in structural prediction and architectural scaling. However, recovering discrete permutations or maintaining identity mappings via annealing εto 0 is notoriously unstable. In this work, we identify a fundamental mechanism for this failure: Premature Mode Collapse. By analyzing the non-normal dynamics of the Sinkhorn fixed-point map, we reveal a theoretical thermodynamic speed limit: standard exponential cooling outpaces the contraction rate of the inference operator, which degrades as O(1/ε). To address this, we propose Efficient Piecewise Hybrid Adaptive Stability Control (EPH-ASC), an adaptive scheduling algorithm that monitors the stability of the inference process. We demonstrate that EPH-ASC is essential for stabilizing Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) during large-scale training on the FineWeb-Edu dataset, effectively preventing late-stage gradient explosions by enforcing a linear stability law.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) enhances Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning but suffers from advantage collapse on ``hard samples'' where all rollouts fail. This lack of variance eliminates crucial learning signals. For these intractable samples, simply scaling up rollout budgets offers limited gains. We introduce Joint Policy and Prompt Optimization (P^2O) to mitigate this collapse by alternating continuous policy updates with discrete prompt evolution. P^2O leverages the GEPA algorithm to discover successful reasoning prompts for intractable instances. Via context distillation, the model internalizes these prompt-induced gains directly into its parameters, removing the need for inference-time prompting. Empirically, P^2O restores critical advantage signals, significantly outperforming standard GRPO and surpassing baselines with doubled rollout budgets, ultimately yielding strong out-of-distribution generalization and an up to 9.5% performance improvement. Our findings expose the limits of standard exploration in sparse-reward environments, illuminating the potential of unifying evolutionary algorithms with reinforcement learning. This integration of discrete semantic search and continuous parameter updates establishes a self-reinforcing paradigm for autonomous LLM alignment.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous economic agents introduces systemic risks that extend beyond individual capability failures. As agents transition to directly interacting with marketplaces, their collective behavior can amplify volatility and mask deception at scale. We introduce the Agent Bazaar, a multi-agent simulation framework for evaluating Economic Alignment, the capacity of agentic systems to preserve market stability and integrity. We identify two failure modes: (1) Algorithmic Instability in a B2C market ("The Crash"), where firms amplify price volatility until the market collapses, and (2) Sybil Deception in a C2C market ("The Lemon Market"), where a single deceptive agent controlling multiple coordinated seller identities floods the market with fraudulent listings, eroding trust and consumer welfare. We evaluate frontier and open-weight models across both scenarios and find that models largely fail to self-regulate, with failure severity varying by model rather than by size. We propose economically aligned harnesses, Stabilizing Firms and Skeptical Guardians, that improve outcomes but remain fragile under harder market conditions. To close this gap, we train agents with REINFORCE++ using an adaptive curriculum, producing a 9B model that outperforms all evaluated frontier and open-weight models. We propose the Economic Alignment Score (EAS), a 4-component scalar metric aggregating stability, integrity, welfare, and profitability, enabling direct cross-model comparison. Our results show that economic alignment is orthogonal to general capability and can be directly trained with targeted RL.

LLM-based evolution has emerged as a promising way to improve agents by refining non-parametric artifacts, but its wall-clock cost remains a major bottleneck. We identify that this cost comes from synchronized stage execution and imbalance inside each LLM-heavy stage. We present FlashEvolve, an efficient framework that replaces synchronized execution with asynchronous workers and queues, allowing different stages and steps to overlap. To handle data staleness introduced by asynchrony, FlashEvolve tracks artifact versions and applies different policies to update, discard, or patch stale artifacts. Unlike weight-space staleness in asynchronous RL, language-space staleness is inspectable and repairable: a stale artifact is not just delayed work, but readable evidence that the LLM can reflect on, revise, and turn into useful evolution signal. FlashEvolve further improves throughput and token efficiency with speculative stage completion and adaptive workflow control. On GEPA workloads, FlashEvolve improves proposal throughput by 3.5times on local vLLM and 4.9times on API serving over synchronous GEPA. The same design also applies to ACE and Meta-Harness.

Agentic systems increasingly solve complex user requests by executing orchestrated workflows, where subtasks are assigned to specialized models or tools and coordinated according to their dependencies. While recent work improves agent efficiency by optimizing the performance--cost--latency frontier, real deployments often impose concrete requirements: a workflow must be completed within a specified budget and before a specified deadline. This shifts the goal from average efficiency optimization to maximizing the probability that the entire workflow completes successfully under explicit budget and deadline constraints. We study constraint-driven online resource allocation for agentic workflows. Given a dependency-structured workflow and estimates of success rates and generation lengths for each subtask--model pair, the executor allocates models and parallel samples across simultaneously executable subtasks while managing the remaining budget and time. We formulate this setting as a finite-horizon stochastic online allocation problem and propose Monte Carlo Portfolio Planning (MCPP), a lightweight closed-loop planner that directly estimates constrained completion probability through simulated workflow executions and replans after observed outcomes. Experiments on CodeFlow and ProofFlow demonstrate that MCPP consistently improves constrained completion probability over strong baselines across a wide range of budget--deadline constraints.

As LLM agents evolve, tokens have emerged as the core economic primitives of Agentic AI. However, their exponential consumption introduces severe computational, collaborative, and security bottlenecks. Current surveys remain fragmented across system optimization, architecture design, and trust, lacking a unified framework to evaluate the fundamental trade-off between output quality and economic cost. To bridge this gap, this survey presents the first comprehensive survey of Token Economics. By unifying computer science and economics, we conceptualize tokens as production factors, exchange mediums, and units of account. We synthesize existing literature across a four-dimensional taxonomy: (1) Micro-level (Single Agent): Optimizing budget-constrained factor substitution via neoclassical firm theory. (2) Meso-level (Multi-Agent Systems): Minimizing collaboration friction using transaction cost and principal-agent theories. (3) Macro-level (Agent Ecosystems): Addressing congestion externalities and pricing via mechanism design. (4) Security: Internalizing adversarial threats as endogenous economic constraints. Finally, we outline frontier directions, including differentiable token budgets and dynamic markets, to lay the theoretical foundation for scalable next-generation agent systems.

Modern deep neural networks have achieved impressive performance on tasks from image classification to natural language processing. Surprisingly, these complex systems with massive amounts of parameters exhibit the same structural properties in their last-layer features and classifiers across canonical datasets when training until convergence. In particular, it has been observed that the last-layer features collapse to their class-means, and those class-means are the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). This phenomenon is known as Neural Collapse (NC). Recent papers have theoretically shown that NC emerges in the global minimizers of training problems with the simplified "unconstrained feature model". In this context, we take a step further and prove the NC occurrences in deep linear networks for the popular mean squared error (MSE) and cross entropy (CE) losses, showing that global solutions exhibit NC properties across the linear layers. Furthermore, we extend our study to imbalanced data for MSE loss and present the first geometric analysis of NC under bias-free setting. Our results demonstrate the convergence of the last-layer features and classifiers to a geometry consisting of orthogonal vectors, whose lengths depend on the amount of data in their corresponding classes. Finally, we empirically validate our theoretical analyses on synthetic and practical network architectures with both balanced and imbalanced scenarios.

Despite significant progress in model editing methods, their application in real-world scenarios remains challenging as they often cause large language models (LLMs) to collapse. Among them, ROME is particularly concerning, as it could disrupt LLMs with only a single edit. In this paper, we study the root causes of such collapse. Through extensive analysis, we identify two primary factors that contribute to the collapse: i) inconsistent handling of prefixed and unprefixed keys in the parameter update equation may result in very small denominators, causing excessively large parameter updates; ii) the subject of collapse cases is usually the first token, whose unprefixed key distribution significantly differs from the prefixed key distribution in autoregressive transformers, causing the aforementioned issue to materialize. To validate our findings, we propose a simple yet effective approach: uniformly using prefixed keys during editing phase and adding prefixes during testing phase to ensure the consistency between training and testing. The experimental results show that the proposed solution can prevent model collapse while maintaining the effectiveness of the edits.

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is critical for the efficient deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). While 4-bit quantization is widely regarded as an optimal trade-off, reducing the precision to 2-bit usually triggers a catastrophic ``performance cliff.'' It remains unclear whether the underlying mechanisms differ fundamentally. Consequently, we conduct a systematic mechanistic analysis, revealing two qualitatively distinct failure modes: Signal Degradation, where the computational patterns remain intact but information precision is impaired by cumulative error; and Computation Collapse, where key components fail to function, preventing correct information processing and destroying the signal in the early layers. Guided by this diagnosis, we conduct mechanism-aware interventions, demonstrating that targeted, training-free repair can mitigate Signal Degradation, but remains ineffective for Computation Collapse. Our findings provide a systematic diagnostic framework for PTQ failures and suggest that addressing Computation Collapse requires structural reconstruction rather than mere compensation.

Training large-scale language models is increasingly critical in various domains, but it is hindered by frequent failures, leading to significant time and economic costs. Current failure recovery methods in cloud-based settings inadequately address the diverse and complex scenarios that arise, focusing narrowly on erasing downtime for individual tasks without considering the overall cost impact on a cluster. We introduce Unicron, a workload manager designed for efficient self-healing in large-scale language model training. Unicron optimizes the training process by minimizing failure-related costs across multiple concurrent tasks within a cluster. Its key features include in-band error detection for real-time error identification without extra overhead, a dynamic cost-aware plan generation mechanism for optimal reconfiguration, and an efficient transition strategy to reduce downtime during state changes. Deployed on a 128-GPU distributed cluster, Unicron demonstrates up to a 1.9x improvement in training efficiency over state-of-the-art methods, significantly reducing failure recovery costs and enhancing the reliability of large-scale language model training.

Test-time reinforcement learning generates multiple candidate answers via repeated rollouts and performs online updates using pseudo-labels constructed by majority voting. To reduce overhead and improve exploration, prior work introduces tree structured rollouts, which share reasoning prefixes and branch at key nodes to improve sampling efficiency. However, this paradigm still faces two challenges: (1) high entropy branching can trigger rollout collapse, where the branching budget concentrates on a few trajectories with consecutive high-entropy segments, rapidly reducing the number of effective branches; (2) early pseudo-labels are noisy and biased, which can induce self-reinforcing overfitting, causing the policy to sharpen prematurely and suppress exploration. To address these issues, we propose Entropy Confidence Hybrid Group Relative Policy Optimization (ECHO). During rollout, ECHO jointly leverages local entropy and group level confidence to adaptively control branch width, and further introduces online confidence-based pruning to terminate persistently low confidence branches, avoiding high entropy traps and mitigating collapse. During policy updates, ECHO employs confidence adaptive clipping and an entropy confidence hybrid advantage shaping approach to enhance training robustness and mitigate early stage bias. Experiments demonstrate that ECHO achieves consistent gains on multiple mathematical and visual reasoning benchmarks, and generalizes more effectively under a limited rollout budget.

Training LLM agents in multi-turn environments with sparse rewards, where completing a single task requires 30+ turns of interaction within an episode, presents a fundamental challenge for reinforcement learning. We identify a critical failure mode unique to this setting: the exploration-exploitation cascade failure. This cascade begins with early-stage policy premature convergence, where sparse feedback causes agents to commit to flawed, low-entropy strategies. Subsequently, agents enter late-stage policy collapse, where conventional entropy regularization becomes counterproductive, promoting chaotic exploration that destabilizes training. We propose Entropy-regularized Policy Optimization (EPO), a general framework that breaks this failure cycle through three synergistic mechanisms: (1) adopting entropy regularization in multi-turn settings to enhance exploration, (2) an entropy smoothing regularizer that bounds policy entropy within historical averages to prevent abrupt fluctuations, and (3) adaptive phase-based weighting that balances exploration and exploitation across training. Our analysis justifies that EPO guarantees monotonically decreasing entropy variance while maintaining convergence. EPO achieves up to 152% performance improvement on ScienceWorld and up to 19.8% on ALFWorld. Our work demonstrates that multi-turn sparse-reward settings require fundamentally different entropy control than traditional RL, with broad implications for LLM agent training.

Complex agentic AI systems, powered by a coordinated ensemble of Large Language Models (LLMs), tool and memory modules, have demonstrated remarkable capabilities on intricate, multi-turn tasks. However, this success is shadowed by prohibitive economic costs and severe latency, exposing a critical, yet underexplored, trade-off. We formalize this challenge as the Agent System Trilemma: the inherent tension among achieving state-of-the-art performance, minimizing monetary cost, and ensuring rapid task completion. To dismantle this trilemma, we introduce EvoRoute, a self-evolving model routing paradigm that transcends static, pre-defined model assignments. Leveraging an ever-expanding knowledge base of prior experience, EvoRoute dynamically selects Pareto-optimal LLM backbones at each step, balancing accuracy, efficiency, and resource use, while continually refining its own selection policy through environment feedback. Experiments on challenging agentic benchmarks such as GAIA and BrowseComp+ demonstrate that EvoRoute, when integrated into off-the-shelf agentic systems, not only sustains or enhances system performance but also reduces execution cost by up to 80% and latency by over 70%.

Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

Proactive interventions by LLM critic models are often assumed to improve reliability, yet their effects at deployment time are poorly understood. We show that a binary LLM critic with strong offline accuracy (AUROC 0.94) can nevertheless cause severe performance degradation, inducing a 26 percentage point (pp) collapse on one model while affecting another by near zero pp. This variability demonstrates that LLM critic accuracy alone is insufficient to determine whether intervention is safe. We identify a disruption-recovery tradeoff: interventions may recover failing trajectories but also disrupt trajectories that would have succeeded. Based on this insight, we propose a pre-deployment test that uses a small pilot of 50 tasks to estimate whether intervention is likely to help or harm, without requiring full deployment. Across benchmarks, the test correctly anticipates outcomes: intervention degrades performance on high-success tasks (0 to -26 pp), while yielding a modest improvement on the high-failure ALFWorld benchmark (+2.8 pp, p=0.014). The primary value of our framework is therefore identifying when not to intervene, preventing severe regressions before deployment.

Recent studies empirically demonstrate the positive relationship between the transferability of neural networks and the within-class variation of the last layer features. The recently discovered Neural Collapse (NC) phenomenon provides a new perspective of understanding such last layer geometry of neural networks. In this paper, we propose a novel metric, named Variability Collapse Index (VCI), to quantify the variability collapse phenomenon in the NC paradigm. The VCI metric is well-motivated and intrinsically related to the linear probing loss on the last layer features. Moreover, it enjoys desired theoretical and empirical properties, including invariance under invertible linear transformations and numerical stability, that distinguishes it from previous metrics. Our experiments verify that VCI is indicative of the variability collapse and the transferability of pretrained neural networks.

We document empirical capability ceilings in decoder-only autoregressive language models across knowledge-intensive tasks. Systematic evaluation of OPT and Pythia model families (70M-30B parameters, spanning 240 times scaling) reveals that knowledge retrieval tasks show negligible accuracy improvement despite smooth loss reduction. On MMLU mathematics benchmarks, accuracy remains flat at 19-20% (below 25% random chance) across all scales while cross-entropy loss decreases by 31%. In contrast, procedural tasks like arithmetic show conventional scaling where both metrics improve together. Attention intervention experiments reveal high sensitivity to perturbation: swapping attention patterns between models causes catastrophic performance collapse (complete accuracy loss) rather than graceful degradation. These measurements have immediate engineering implications: for knowledge-intensive applications using OPT and Pythia architectures, parameter scaling beyond 1-2B offers minimal accuracy gains despite continued loss improvement. Our findings quantify capability-specific scaling failures in these model families to inform resource allocation decisions. Whether these patterns reflect fundamental constraints of decoder-only architectures or implementation-specific limitations remains an open question requiring investigation across diverse architectural approaches.

As LLM agents tackle increasingly complex tasks, a critical question is whether they can maintain strategic coherence over long horizons: planning under uncertainty, learning from delayed feedback, and adapting when early mistakes compound. We introduce YC-Bench, a benchmark that evaluates these capabilities by tasking an agent with running a simulated startup over a one-year horizon spanning hundreds of turns. The agent must manage employees, select task contracts, and maintain profitability in a partially observable environment where adversarial clients and growing payroll create compounding consequences for poor decisions. We evaluate 12 models, both proprietary and open source, across 3 seeds each. Only three models consistently surpass the starting capital of \200K, with Claude Opus 4.6 achieving the highest average final funds at 1.27 M, followed by GLM-5 at \1.21 M at 11\times lower inference cost. Scratchpad usage, the sole mechanism for persisting information across context truncation, is the strongest predictor of success, and adversarial client detection is the primary failure mode, accounting for 47\% of bankruptcies. Our analysis reveals that frontier models still fail through distinct failure modes such as over-parallelization, demonstrating the capability gaps for long-horizon performance. YC-Bench$ is open-source, reproducible, and configurable.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into autonomous agents that execute long-horizon workflows, invoking a high-capability model at every step becomes economically unsustainable. While model routing is effective for single-turn queries, agentic routing is a sequential, path-dependent problem: early mistakes compound, feedback is often at the end of the episode, and deployments often demand strict per-task spending limits. We propose Budget-Aware Agentic Routing, which selects between a cheap and an expensive model at each step to optimize the cost--success frontier and to operate under strict per-task budgets. We propose Boundary-Guided Training, which leverages two boundary policies (always-small vs.\ always-large) to build a difficulty taxonomy and to anchor learning under sparse rewards. Our approach warms start with boundary-guided SFT data synthesis via stratified sampling of cost-efficient trajectories, then applies Boundary-Guided Policy Optimization (BoPO), combining boundary-relative rewards with a reference-guided advantage to avoid degenerate cheap-failure solutions. Experiment results show that our method improves the efficiency frontier, matching strong routing baselines at substantially lower cost while demonstrating generalization to strict inference-time budget constraints. Overall, our work establishes a foundational framework for agentic routing, shifting the paradigm from static model selection to dynamic, budget-aware sequential decision-making.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable reward has recently emerged as a central paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs); however, prevailing mean-based methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), suffer from entropy collapse and limited reasoning gains. We argue that these issues stem from overemphasizing high-probability output sequences while neglecting rare but informative reasoning paths. To address these challenges, we propose Risk-based Policy Optimization (RiskPO), which substitutes classical mean-based objectives with principled risk measures. Specifically, we introduce a Mixed Value-at-Risk objective that integrates weighted attention over multiple regions of the reward distribution, thereby amplifying gradient signals on challenging instances and preventing overconfident convergence. We further design a bundling scheme that aggregates multiple questions into bundles, thus enriching the feedback signal and yielding more stable and informative training dynamics. Theoretically, we prove that the risk-averse update alleviates entropy collapse and promotes exploration. Numerically, RiskPO achieves consistent and significant improvements in mathematical reasoning, multi-modal reasoning, and code generation benchmarks, surpassing GRPO and its variants on both Pass@1 and Pass@k metrics. Our results demonstrate that risk-based optimization provides a rigorous and effective paradigm for enhancing LLM reasoning capabilities.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled complex reasoning abilities in large language models (LLMs). However, most RL algorithms suffer from performance saturation, preventing continued gains as RL training scales. This problem can be characterized by the collapse of entropy, a key diagnostic for exploration in RL. Existing attempts focus on preventing entropy collapse through regularization or clipping. However, their resulting entropy curves often exhibit instability in the long term, which hinders performance gains. In this paper, we introduce Entrocraft, a simple rejection-sampling approach that realizes user-customized entropy schedule by biasing the advantage distributions. Entrocraft requires no objective regularization and is advantage-estimator-agnostic. Theoretically, we relate per-step entropy change to the advantage distribution under minimal assumptions. This explains the behavior of existing RL and entropy-preserving methods. Entrocraft also enables a systematic study of entropy schedules, which reveals that linear annealing, which starts high and decays to a slightly lower target, performs best. Empirically, Entrocraft addresses performance saturation, significantly improving generalization, output diversity, and long-term training. It enables a 4B model to outperform an 8B baseline, sustains improvement for up to 4x longer before plateauing, and raises pass@K by 50% over the baseline.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become essential for post-training large language models (LLMs) in reasoning tasks. While scaling rollouts can stabilize training and enhance performance, the computational overhead is a critical issue. In algorithms like GRPO, multiple rollouts per prompt incur prohibitive costs, as a large portion of prompts provide negligible gradients and are thus of low utility. To address this problem, we investigate how to select high-utility prompts before the rollout phase. Our experimental analysis reveals that sample utility is non-uniform and evolving: the strongest learning signals concentrate at the ``learning edge", the intersection of intermediate difficulty and high uncertainty, which shifts as training proceeds. Motivated by this, we propose HIVE (History-Informed and online-VErified prompt selection), a dual-stage framework for data-efficient RL. HIVE utilizes historical reward trajectories for coarse selection and employs prompt entropy as a real-time proxy to prune instances with stale utility. By evaluating HIVE across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and models, we show that HIVE yields significant rollout efficiency without compromising performance.

The inference cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) has become a critical factor in determining their commercial viability and widespread adoption. This paper introduces a quantitative ``economics of inference'' framework, treating the LLM inference process as a compute-driven intelligent production activity. We analyze its marginal cost, economies of scale, and quality of output under various performance configurations. Based on empirical data from WiNEval-3.0, we construct the first ``LLM Inference Production Frontier,'' revealing three principles: diminishing marginal cost, diminishing returns to scale, and an optimal cost-effectiveness zone. This paper not only provides an economic basis for model deployment decisions but also lays an empirical foundation for the future market-based pricing and optimization of AI inference resources.

Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) seeks to learn policies that balance multiple, often conflicting objectives. Although a single preference-conditioned policy is the most flexible and scalable solution, existing approaches remain brittle in practice, frequently failing to recover complete Pareto fronts. We show that this failure stems from two structural issues in current methods: destructive gradient interference caused by premature scalarization and representational collapse across the preference space. We introduce D^3PO, a PPO-based framework that reorganizes multi-objective policy optimization to address these issues directly. D^3PO preserves per-objective learning signals through a decomposed optimization pipeline and integrates preferences only after stabilization, enabling reliable credit assignment. In addition, a scaled diversity regularizer enforces sensitivity of policy behavior to preference changes, preventing collapse. Across standard MORL benchmarks, including high-dimensional and many-objective control tasks, D^3PO consistently discovers broader and higher-quality Pareto fronts than prior single- and multi-policy methods, matching or exceeding state-of-the-art hypervolume and expected utility while using a single deployable policy.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

Small language models are increasingly viewed as a promising, cost-effective approach to agentic AI, with proponents claiming they are sufficiently capable for agentic workflows. However, while smaller agents can closely match larger ones on simple tasks, it remains unclear how their performance scales with task complexity, when large models become necessary, and how to better leverage small agents for long-horizon workloads. In this work, we empirically show that small agents' performance fails to scale with task complexity on deep search and coding tasks, and we introduce Strategy Auctions for Workload Efficiency (SALE), an agent framework inspired by freelancer marketplaces. In SALE, agents bid with short strategic plans, which are scored by a systematic cost-value mechanism and refined via a shared auction memory, enabling per-task routing and continual self-improvement without training a separate router or running all models to completion. Across deep search and coding tasks of varying complexity, SALE reduces reliance on the largest agent by 53%, lowers overall cost by 35%, and consistently improves upon the largest agent's pass@1 with only a negligible overhead beyond executing the final trace. In contrast, established routers that rely on task descriptions either underperform the largest agent or fail to reduce cost -- often both -- underscoring their poor fit for agentic workflows. These results suggest that while small agents may be insufficient for complex workloads, they can be effectively "scaled up" through coordinated task allocation and test-time self-improvement. More broadly, they motivate a systems-level view of agentic AI in which performance gains come less from ever-larger individual models and more from market-inspired coordination mechanisms that organize heterogeneous agents into efficient, adaptive ecosystems.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Multi-agent LLM committees replicate the same model under different role prompts and aggregate outputs by majority vote, implicitly assuming that agents contribute complementary evidence. We embed each agent's chain-of-thought rationale and measure pairwise similarity: across 100 GSM8K questions with three Qwen2.5-14B agents, mean cosine similarity is 0.888 and effective rank is 2.17 out of 3.0, a failure mode we term representational collapse. DALC, a training-free consensus protocol that computes diversity weights from embedding geometry, reaches 87% on GSM8K versus 84% for self-consistency at 26% lower token cost. Ablation experiments reveal 1-3 point per-protocol run-to-run variance, confirm that hint sharing contributes more than diversity weighting alone, and show that encoder choice strongly modulates collapse severity (cosine 0.908 with mxbai versus 0.888 with nomic) and downstream accuracy. The more robust finding is that collapse is measurable, worsens on harder tasks, and that the choice of embedding proxy is a first-order design decision for any latent communication protocol.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in automating the process of neural architecture design, and the Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS) method makes the process available within a few GPU days. However, the performance of DARTS is often observed to collapse when the number of search epochs becomes large. Meanwhile, lots of "{\em skip-connect}s" are found in the selected architectures. In this paper, we claim that the cause of the collapse is that there exists overfitting in the optimization of DARTS. Therefore, we propose a simple and effective algorithm, named "DARTS+", to avoid the collapse and improve the original DARTS, by "early stopping" the search procedure when meeting a certain criterion. We also conduct comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets and different search spaces and show the effectiveness of our DARTS+ algorithm, and DARTS+ achieves 2.32% test error on CIFAR10, 14.87% on CIFAR100, and 23.7% on ImageNet. We further remark that the idea of "early stopping" is implicitly included in some existing DARTS variants by manually setting a small number of search epochs, while we give an {\em explicit} criterion for "early stopping".

While LLMs excel at open-ended reasoning, they often struggle with cost-sensitive planning, either treating all actions as having equal cost or failing to stay within strict budgets. In this paper, we introduce Cost-Augmented Monte Carlo Tree Search (CATS), a novel approach that brings explicit cost-awareness into LLM-guided planning. Tight cost constraints push the planner to quickly identify infeasible solutions, while looser constraints encourage optimization for minimal cost. We benchmark top LLMs such as GPT-4.1, Claude-3.7-Sonnet, and DeepSeek-R1, against our CATS planner to evaluate their performance in cost-sensitive scenarios. Our experiments suggest that raw LLMs such as GPT-4.1 often falter under tight budgets, whereas CATS consistently delivers strong performance, achieving higher task success rates and better cost efficiency. CATS provides an effective solution for budget-aware decision-making by combining the reasoning power of LLMs with structured search.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable powerful multi-agent systems, but scaling them is economically unsustainable: coordinating heterogeneous agents under information asymmetry often spirals costs. Existing paradigms, such as Mixture-of-Agents and knowledge-based routers, rely on heuristic proxies that ignore costs and collapse uncertainty structure, leading to provably suboptimal coordination. We introduce Agora, a framework that reframes coordination as a decentralized market for uncertainty. Agora formalizes epistemic uncertainty into a structured, tradable asset (perceptual, semantic, inferential), and enforces profitability-driven trading among agents based on rational economic rules. A market-aware broker, extending Thompson Sampling, initiates collaboration and guides the system toward cost-efficient equilibria. Experiments on five multimodal benchmarks (MMMU, MMBench, MathVision, InfoVQA, CC-OCR) show that Agora outperforms strong VLMs and heuristic multi-agent strategies, e.g., achieving +8.5% accuracy over the best baseline on MMMU while reducing cost by over 3x. These results establish market-based coordination as a principled and scalable paradigm for building economically viable multi-agent visual intelligence systems.

Cloud platforms are increasingly relied upon to host diverse, resource-intensive workloads due to their scalability, flexibility, and cost-efficiency. In multi-tenant cloud environments, virtual machines are consolidated on shared physical servers to improve resource utilization. While virtualization guarantees resource partitioning for CPU, memory, and storage, it cannot ensure performance isolation. Competition for shared resources such as last-level cache, memory bandwidth, and network interfaces often leads to severe performance degradation. Existing management techniques, including VM scheduling and resource provisioning, require accurate performance prediction to mitigate interference. However, this remains challenging in public clouds due to the black-box nature of VMs and the highly dynamic nature of workloads. To address these limitations, we propose CloudFormer, a dual-branch Transformer-based model designed to predict VM performance degradation in black-box environments. CloudFormer jointly models temporal dynamics and system-level interactions, leveraging 206 system metrics at one-second resolution across both static and dynamic scenarios. This design enables the model to capture transient interference effects and adapt to varying workload conditions without scenario-specific tuning. Complementing the methodology, we provide a fine-grained dataset that significantly expands the temporal resolution and metric diversity compared to existing benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that CloudFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple evaluation metrics, achieving robust generalization across diverse and previously unseen workloads. Notably, CloudFormer attains a mean absolute error (MAE) of just 7.8%, representing a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy and outperforming existing methods at least by 28%.

The paradigm of automated program generation is shifting from one-shot generation to inference-time search, where Large Language Models (LLMs) function as semantic mutation operators within evolutionary loops. While effective, these systems are currently governed by static schedules that fail to account for the non-stationary dynamics of the search process. This rigidity results in substantial computational waste, as resources are indiscriminately allocated to stagnating populations while promising frontiers remain under-exploited. We introduce AdaEvolve, a framework that reformulates LLM-driven evolution as a hierarchical adaptive optimization problem. AdaEvolve uses an "accumulated improvement signal" to unify decisions across three levels: Local Adaptation, which dynamically modulates the exploration intensity within a population of solution candidates; Global Adaptation, which routes the global resource budget via bandit-based scheduling across different solution candidate populations; and Meta-Guidance which generates novel solution tactics based on the previously generated solutions and their corresponding improvements when the progress stalls. We demonstrate that AdaEvolve consistently outperforms the open-sourced baselines across 185 different open-ended optimization problems including combinatorial, systems optimization and algorithm design problems.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning due to model overconfidence, often without awareness of their epistemological limits. We hypothesize that ``neural collapse'', a phenomenon affecting in-distribution data for models trained beyond loss convergence, also influences OOD data. To benefit from this interplay, we introduce NECO, a novel post-hoc method for OOD detection, which leverages the geometric properties of ``neural collapse'' and of principal component spaces to identify OOD data. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that NECO achieves state-of-the-art results on both small and large-scale OOD detection tasks while exhibiting strong generalization capabilities across different network architectures. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of our method in OOD detection. Code is available at https://gitlab.com/drti/neco

Reinforcement learning drives recent advances in LLM reasoning and agentic capabilities, yet current approaches struggle with both exploration and exploitation. Exploration suffers from low success rates on difficult tasks and high costs of repeated rollouts from scratch. Exploitation suffers from coarse credit assignment and training instability: Trajectory-level rewards penalize valid prefixes for later errors, and failure-dominated groups overwhelm the few positive signals, leaving optimization without constructive direction. To this end, we propose R^3L, Reflect-then-Retry Reinforcement Learning with Language-Guided Exploration, Pivotal Credit, and Positive Amplification. To synthesize high-quality trajectories, R^3L shifts from stochastic sampling to active synthesis via reflect-then-retry, leveraging language feedback to diagnose errors, transform failed attempts into successful ones, and reduce rollout costs by restarting from identified failure points. With errors diagnosed and localized, Pivotal Credit Assignment updates only the diverging suffix where contrastive signals exist, excluding the shared prefix from gradient update. Since failures dominate on difficult tasks and reflect-then-retry produces off-policy data, risking training instability, Positive Amplification upweights successful trajectories to ensure positive signals guide the optimization process. Experiments on agentic and reasoning tasks demonstrate 5\% to 52\% relative improvements over baselines while maintaining training stability. Our code is released at https://github.com/shiweijiezero/R3L.

Test-time scaling has become a dominant paradigm for improving LLM agent reliability, yet current approaches treat compute as an abundant resource, allowing agents to exhaust token and tool budgets on redundant steps or dead-end trajectories. Existing budget-aware methods either require expensive fine-tuning or rely on coarse, trajectory-level heuristics that cannot intervene mid-execution. We propose the Budget-Aware Value Tree (BAVT), a training-free inference-time framework that models multi-hop reasoning as a dynamic search tree guided by step-level value estimation within a single LLM backbone. Another key innovation is a budget-conditioned node selection mechanism that uses the remaining resource ratio as a natural scaling exponent over node values, providing a principled, parameter-free transition from broad exploration to greedy exploitation as the budget depletes. To combat the well-known overconfidence of LLM self-evaluation, BAVT employs a residual value predictor that scores relative progress rather than absolute state quality, enabling reliable pruning of uninformative or redundant tool calls. We further provide a theoretical convergence guarantee, proving that BAVT reaches a terminal answer with probability at least 1-ε under an explicit finite budget bound. Extensive evaluations on four multi-hop QA benchmarks across two model families demonstrate that BAVT consistently outperforms parallel sampling baselines. Most notably, BAVT under strict low-budget constraints surpasses baseline performance at 4times the resource allocation, establishing that intelligent budget management fundamentally outperforms brute-force compute scaling.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Despite MoE models leading many benchmarks, supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for the MoE architectures remains difficult because its router layers are fragile. Methods such as DenseMixer and ESFT mitigate router collapse with dense mixing or auxiliary load-balancing losses, but these introduce noisy gradients that often degrade performance. In preliminary experiments, we systematically pruned experts and observed that while certain super experts are activated far more frequently, discarding less used experts still leads to notable performance degradation. This suggests that even rarely activated experts encode non-trivial knowledge useful for downstream tasks. Motivated by this, we propose an auxiliary-loss-free MoE SFT framework that combines bias-driven sparsification with always-active gated condenser experts. Rather than enforcing balanced activation across all experts, our method encourages task-relevant experts to remain active while pushing long-tailed experts toward inactivity. The condenser experts provide a persistent, learnable pathway that alleviates gradient starvation and facilitates consolidation of information that would otherwise remain fragmented across sparsely activated experts. Analysis further suggest that this design better preserves long-tailed expert information under sparse routing. Experiments on large-scale MoE models demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art SFT baselines such as DenseMixer and ESFT, achieving average gain of 2.5%+ on both mathematical reasoning and commonsenseQA benchmarks.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

This paper aims to overcome a major obstacle in scaling RL for reasoning with LLMs, namely the collapse of policy entropy. Such phenomenon is consistently observed across vast RL runs without entropy intervention, where the policy entropy dropped sharply at the early training stage, this diminished exploratory ability is always accompanied with the saturation of policy performance. In practice, we establish a transformation equation R=-a*e^H+b between entropy H and downstream performance R. This empirical law strongly indicates that, the policy performance is traded from policy entropy, thus bottlenecked by its exhaustion, and the ceiling is fully predictable H=0, R=-a+b. Our finding necessitates entropy management for continuous exploration toward scaling compute for RL. To this end, we investigate entropy dynamics both theoretically and empirically. Our derivation highlights that, the change in policy entropy is driven by the covariance between action probability and the change in logits, which is proportional to its advantage when using Policy Gradient-like algorithms. Empirical study shows that, the values of covariance term and entropy differences matched exactly, supporting the theoretical conclusion. Moreover, the covariance term stays mostly positive throughout training, further explaining why policy entropy would decrease monotonically. Through understanding the mechanism behind entropy dynamics, we motivate to control entropy by restricting the update of high-covariance tokens. Specifically, we propose two simple yet effective techniques, namely Clip-Cov and KL-Cov, which clip and apply KL penalty to tokens with high covariances respectively. Experiments show that these methods encourage exploration, thus helping policy escape entropy collapse and achieve better downstream performance.

While Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can enhance LLM reasoning, its training process poses a critical risk: entropy collapse. This phenomenon is a rapid loss of policy diversity, stemming from the exploration-exploitation imbalance and leading to a lack of generalization. Recent entropy-intervention methods aim to prevent entropy collapse, yet their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In this paper, we conduct a quantitative analysis to reveal token-level entropy changes and how existing entropy intervention methods help avoid entropy collapse. Our findings point out a fundamental limitation of existing methods: they attempt to control entropy dynamics indirectly. By only affecting related factors, such as the advantage signal and generation probability, their effectiveness is inherently limited and could potentially fail. To address this limitation, we introduce an entropy-change-aware reweighting scheme, namely Stabilizing Token-level Entropy-changE via Reweighting (STEER), that adaptively stabilizes entropy dynamics through fine-grained token-level adjustments. Our approach mitigates over-exploitation while fostering robust exploration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STEER significantly mitigates entropy collapse, stabilizes entropy dynamics, and achieves stronger downstream performance across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks \footnote{Our code is available at https://github.com/zz-haooo/STEER.

The evolution of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has shifted from static retrieval pipelines to dynamic, agentic workflows where a central planner orchestrates multi-turn reasoning. However, existing paradigms face a critical dichotomy: they either optimize modules jointly within rigid, fixed-graph architectures, or empower dynamic planning while treating executors as frozen, black-box tools. We identify that this decoupled optimization creates a ``strategic-operational mismatch,'' where sophisticated planning strategies fail to materialize due to unadapted local executors, often leading to negative performance gains despite increased system complexity. In this paper, we propose JADE (Joint Agentic Dynamic Execution), a unified framework for the joint optimization of planning and execution within dynamic, multi-turn workflows. By modeling the system as a cooperative multi-agent team unified under a single shared backbone, JADE enables end-to-end learning driven by outcome-based rewards. This approach facilitates co-adaptation: the planner learns to operate within the capability boundaries of the executors, while the executors evolve to align with high-level strategic intent. Empirical results demonstrate that JADE transforms disjoint modules into a synergistic system, yielding remarkable performance improvements via joint optimization and enabling a flexible balance between efficiency and effectiveness through dynamic workflow orchestration.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) enhances LLM reasoning, yet a paradox emerges as models scale: strong base models saturate standard benchmarks (e.g., MATH), yielding correct but homogeneous solutions. In such environments, the lack of failure cases causes the advantage signal in group-relative algorithms (e.g., GRPO) to vanish, driving policies into mode collapse. To address this, we propose Constrained Uniform Top-K Sampling (CUTS), a parameter-free decoding strategy enforcing structure-preserving exploration. Unlike standard sampling that follows model biases, CUTS flattens the local optimization landscape by sampling uniformly from constrained high-confidence candidates. We integrate this into Mixed-CUTS, a training framework synergizing exploitative and exploratory rollouts to amplify intra-group advantage variance. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate that our approach prevents policy degeneration and significantly boosts out-of-domain generalization. Notably, Mixed-CUTS improves Pass@1 accuracy on the challenging AIME25 benchmark by up to 15.1% over standard GRPO, validating that maintaining diversity within the semantic manifold is critical for rigorous reasoning.

Agents, language model (LM)-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored, leaving practitioners to rely on heuristics rather than principled design choices. We address this gap by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We evaluate this across four diverse benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. Using five canonical architectures (Single, Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid) instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations with standardized tools and token budgets. We derive a predictive model using empirical coordination metrics, including efficiency, overhead, error amplification, and redundancy, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.513. We identify three dominant effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns (beta=-0.408, p<0.001) once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x through unchecked propagation, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.9% on parallelizable tasks like financial reasoning, while decentralized coordination excels on dynamic web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, all multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations, providing a predictive principle of agentic scaling based on measurable task properties.

Modern LLM deployments confront a widening cost-performance spectrum: premium models deliver strong reasoning but are expensive, while lightweight models are economical yet brittle on complex tasks. Static escalation rules and keyword heuristics under-utilize this spectrum and fail to adapt across task types. We present xRouter, a tool-calling-based routing system in which a learned router can either answer directly or invoke one or more external models. The router is trained end-to-end with reinforcement learning using an explicit, cost-aware reward that encodes cost-performance trade-offs, eliminating the need for hand-engineered routing rules. Our implementation encompasses the full reinforcement learning framework, including reward and cost accounting, as well as the deployment and evaluation pipelines. Across diverse benchmarks, xRouter achieves strong cost-performance trade-offs (e.g., substantial cost reductions at comparable task completion rates), and provides empirical insights into what reliably helps learned routing and what does not, ranging from model trainability to the difficulty of eliciting sophisticated orchestration behaviors in small open models. We hope these findings and our open implementation will serve as a practical substrate for advancing learned, cost-aware LLM orchestration.

Although synthetic data is widely promoted as a remedy, its prevailing production paradigm -- one optimizing for statistical smoothness -- systematically removes the long-tail, cognitively grounded irregularities that characterize human text. Prolonged training on such statistically optimal but cognitively impoverished data accelerates model collapse. This paper proposes a paradigm shift: instead of imitating the surface properties of data, we simulate the cognitive processes that generate human text. We introduce the Prompt-driven Cognitive Computing Framework (PMCSF), whose core consists of a Cognitive State Decoder (CSD) that reverse-engineers unstructured text into structured cognitive vectors, and a Cognitive Text Encoder (CTE) that re-materializes these states into text enriched with human-typical imperfections via mathematically defined Cognitive Perturbation Operators. The framework is validated through a two-stage objective evaluation pipeline. First, in cognitive codec verification, CTE text yields a Jensen-Shannon divergence of 0.0614 from human text (vs. 0.4431 for standard LLM output), passes double-blind professional media review, and achieves an intraclass correlation coefficient ICC > 0.9 for cognitive profile alignment across heterogeneous models. Second, in functional gain evaluation, isomorphic stress tests in the A-share market show that strategies incorporating CTE-generated data reduce maximum drawdown by 47.4% during the 2015 crash and deliver 8.6% Defensive Alpha, exceeding transaction costs by a factor of 33. Our findings demonstrate that modelling human cognitive limitations -- not copying surface data -- enables synthetic data with genuine functional gain, offering a viable technical pathway toward resolving the AI data-collapse crisis.

LLM inference is still evaluated mainly as a model or software problem: accuracy, latency, throughput, and hardware utilization. This is incomplete. At deployment scale, the relevant output is a quality-conditioned token produced under joint constraints from effective compute, delivered data-center power, cooling capacity, PUE, and utilization. We argue that the ML community should treat inference as energy-to-token production. We formalize this view with a dimensionally consistent Token Production Function in which token rate is bounded by both compute-per-token and energy-per-token ceilings. Listed API prices vary by over an order of magnitude across providers, but we use price dispersion only as directional motivation, not as causal evidence of marginal cost. The core physical question is instead: under fixed quality and service targets, when does the binding constraint move from theoretical peak compute toward delivered power, cooling, and operational efficiency? Under this framing, system optimizations -- latent KV-cache compression, sparse or heavily compressed attention, quantization, routing, and difficulty-adaptive reasoning -- are not merely local engineering tricks. They are energy-to-token levers because they reduce FLOPs/token, joules/token, memory traffic, or utilization losses under fixed (q^{*},s^{*}). We therefore call for inference papers and benchmarks to report Joules/token, active binding constraint, PUE-adjusted delivered power, and utilization-adjusted token output alongside accuracy and latency.

Sparsely-activated Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) models offer efficient pre-training and low latency but their large parameter counts create significant memory overhead, motivating research into expert compression. Contrary to recent findings favouring expert merging on discriminative benchmarks, we demonstrate that expert pruning is a superior strategy for generative tasks. We prove that merging introduces an irreducible error by causing a "functional subspace collapse", due to the loss of the router's independent, input-dependent control over experts. Leveraging this insight, we propose Router-weighted Expert Activation Pruning (REAP), a novel pruning criterion that considers both router gate-values and expert activation norms. Across a diverse set of SMoE models ranging from 20B to 1T parameters, REAP consistently outperforms merging and other pruning methods on generative benchmarks, especially at 50% compression. Notably, our method achieves near-lossless compression on code generation and tool-calling tasks with Qwen3-Coder-480B and Kimi-K2, even after pruning 50% of experts.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agentic systems that can reason, plan, and act across complex tasks, but it remains unclear whether they can allocate resources effectively under uncertainty. Unlike short-horizon reactive decisions, allocation requires committing scarce resources over time while balancing competing objectives and preserving flexibility for future needs. We introduce EnterpriseArena, the first benchmark for evaluating agents on long-horizon enterprise resource allocation. It instantiates CFO-style decision-making in a 132-month enterprise simulator combining firm-level financial data, anonymized business documents, macroeconomic and industry signals, and expert-validated operating rules. The environment is partially observable and reveals the state only through budgeted organizational tools, forcing agents to trade off information acquisition against conserving scarce resources. Experiments on eleven advanced LLMs show that this setting remains highly challenging: only 16% of runs survive the full horizon, and larger models do not reliably outperform smaller ones. These results identify long-horizon resource allocation under uncertainty as a distinct capability gap for current LLM agents.

Multi-agent LLM systems are increasingly deployed as autonomous collaborators, where agents interact freely rather than execute fixed, pre-specified workflows. In such settings, effective coordination cannot be fully designed in advance and must instead emerge through interaction. However, most prior work enforces coordination through fixed roles, workflows, or aggregation rules, leaving open the question of how well self-organizing teams perform when coordination is unconstrained. Drawing on organizational psychology, we study whether self-organizing LLM teams achieve strong synergy, where team performance matches or exceeds the best individual member. Across human-inspired and frontier ML benchmarks, we find that -- unlike human teams -- LLM teams consistently fail to match their expert agent's performance, even when explicitly told who the expert is, incurring performance losses of up to 37.6%. Decomposing this failure, we show that expert leveraging, rather than identification, is the primary bottleneck. Conversational analysis reveals a tendency toward integrative compromise -- averaging expert and non-expert views rather than appropriately weighting expertise -- which increases with team size and correlates negatively with performance. Interestingly, this consensus-seeking behavior improves robustness to adversarial agents, suggesting a trade-off between alignment and effective expertise utilization. Our findings reveal a significant gap in the ability of self-organizing multi-agent teams to harness the collective expertise of their members.

RLVR and OPD have become standard paradigms for post-training. We provide a unified analysis of these two paradigms in consolidating multiple expert capabilities into a single model, identifying capability loss in different ways: mixed RLVR suffers from inter-capability divergence cost, while the pipeline of first training experts and then performing OPD, though avoiding divergence, fails to fully absorb teacher capabilities due to large behavioral pattern gaps between teacher and student. We propose Co-Evolving Policy Distillation (CoPD), which encourages parallel training of experts and introduces OPD during each expert's ongoing RLVR training rather than after complete expert training, with experts serving as mutual teachers (making OPD bidirectional) to co-evolve. This enables more consistent behavioral patterns among experts while maintaining sufficient complementary knowledge throughout. Experiments validate that CoPD achieves all-in-one integration of text, image, and video reasoning capabilities, significantly outperforming strong baselines such as mixed RLVR and MOPD, and even surpassing domain-specific experts. The model parallel training pattern offered by CoPD may inspire a novel training scaling paradigm.

Reinforcement learning algorithms such as group-relative policy optimization (GRPO) have demonstrated strong potential for improving the mathematical reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, prior work has consistently observed an entropy collapse phenomenon during reinforcement post-training, characterized by a monotonic decrease in policy entropy that ultimately leads to training instability and collapse. As a result, most existing approaches restrict training to short horizons (typically 5-20 epochs), limiting sustained exploration and hindering further policy improvement. In addition, nearly all prior work relies on a single, fixed reasoning prompt or template during training. In this work, we introduce prompt augmentation, a training strategy that instructs the model to generate reasoning traces under diverse templates and formats, thereby increasing rollout diversity. We show that, without a KL regularization term, prompt augmentation enables stable scaling of training duration under a fixed dataset and allows the model to tolerate low-entropy regimes without premature collapse. Empirically, a Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B model trained with prompt augmentation on the MATH Level 3-5 dataset achieves state-of-the-art performance, reaching 44.5 per-benchmark accuracy and 51.3 per-question accuracy on standard mathematical reasoning benchmarks, including AIME24, AMC, MATH500, Minerva, and OlympiadBench. The code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/wenquanlu/prompt-augmentation-GRPO.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Assigning one of K options to each of N groups under a total cost budget is a recurring problem in efficient AI, including mixed-precision quantization, non-uniform pruning, and expert selection. The objective, typically model loss, depends jointly on all assignments and does not decompose across groups, preventing combinatorial solvers from directly optimizing the true objective and forcing reliance on proxy formulations. Methods such as evolutionary search evaluate the actual loss but lack gradient information, while penalty-based approaches enforce the budget only approximately and often require extensive hyperparameter tuning. We present a new approach by showing that, under softmax relaxation, the budget constraint defines a smooth Riemannian manifold in logit space with unusually simple geometry. The normal vector admits a closed-form expression, shifting logits along the cost vector changes expected cost monotonically, and vector transport reduces to a single inner product. Building on these properties, we propose Riemannian Constrained Optimization (RCO), which augments a standard Adam step with tangent projection, binary-search retraction, and momentum transport. Combined with Gumbel straight-through estimation and budget-constrained dynamic programming for discrete feasibility, RCO enables first-order optimization of the actual loss under exact budget enforcement without introducing constraint-specific hyperparameters. Across both synthetic benchmarks and realistic LLM compression settings, RCO matches or exceeds state-of-the-art methods while often requiring substantially less wall-clock time. Source code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/RCO.

LLMs have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in reasoning, insights, and tool use, but chaining these abilities into extended processes at the scale of those routinely executed by humans, organizations, and societies has remained out of reach. The models have a persistent error rate that prevents scale-up: for instance, recent experiments in the Towers of Hanoi benchmark domain showed that the process inevitably becomes derailed after at most a few hundred steps. Thus, although LLM research is often still benchmarked on tasks with relatively few dependent logical steps, there is increasing attention on the ability (or inability) of LLMs to perform long range tasks. This paper describes MAKER, the first system that successfully solves a task with over one million LLM steps with zero errors, and, in principle, scales far beyond this level. The approach relies on an extreme decomposition of a task into subtasks, each of which can be tackled by focused microagents. The high level of modularity resulting from the decomposition allows error correction to be applied at each step through an efficient multi-agent voting scheme. This combination of extreme decomposition and error correction makes scaling possible. Thus, the results suggest that instead of relying on continual improvement of current LLMs, massively decomposed agentic processes (MDAPs) may provide a way to efficiently solve problems at the level of organizations and societies.

Large Language Models are being increasingly deployed as the decision-making core of autonomous agents capable of effecting change in external environments. Yet, in conversational benchmarks, which simulate real-world customer-centric issue resolution scenarios, these agents frequently fail due to the cascading effects of incorrect decision-making. These challenges are particularly pronounced for open-source LLMs with smaller parameter sizes, limited context windows, and constrained inference budgets, which contribute to increased error accumulation in agentic settings. To tackle these challenges, we present the Failure-Aware Meta-Agentic (FAMA) framework. FAMA operates in two stages: first, it analyzes failure trajectories from baseline agents to identify the most prevalent errors; second, it employs an orchestration mechanism that activates a minimal subset of specialized agents tailored to address these failures by injecting a targeted context for the tool-use agent before the decision-making step. Experiments across open-source LLMs demonstrate performance gains up to 27% across evaluation modes over standard baselines. These results highlight that targeted curation of context through specialized agents to address common failures is a valuable design principle for building reliable, multi-turn tool-use LLM agents that simulate real-world conversational scenarios.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains student models under their own induced distribution while leveraging supervision from stronger teachers. We identify a failure mode of OPD: as training progresses, on-policy rollouts can undergo abrupt length inflation, causing truncated trajectories to dominate the training data. This truncation collapse coincides with abrupt repetition saturation and induces biased gradient signals, leading to severe training instability and sharp degradation in validation performance. We attribute this problem to the interaction between student-induced data collection and the distillation objective, which implicitly favors long and repetitive rollouts. To address this issue, we propose StableOPD, a stabilized OPD framework that combines a reference-based divergence constraint with rollout mixture distillation. These together mitigate repetition-induced length inflation and further stabilize OPD training. Across multiple math reasoning datasets, our approach prevents truncation collapse, stabilizes training dynamics, and improves performance by 7.2% on average.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at algorithmic code generation, they struggle with front-end development, where correctness is judged on rendered pixels and interaction. We present ReLook, an agentic, vision-grounded reinforcement learning framework that empowers an agent to close a robust generate--diagnose--refine loop by invoking a multimodal LLM (MLLM) as a tool. During training, the agent uses the MLLM-in-the-loop both as a visual critic--scoring code with screenshots--and as a source of actionable, vision-grounded feedback; a strict zero-reward rule for invalid renders anchors renderability and prevents reward hacking. To prevent behavioral collapse, we introduce Forced Optimization, a strict acceptance rule that admits only improving revisions, yielding monotonically better trajectories. At inference, we decouple the critic and run a lightweight, critic-free self-edit cycle, keeping latency comparable to base decoding while retaining most of the gains. Across three widely used benchmarks, ReLook consistently outperforms strong baselines in vision-grounded front-end code generation, highlighting the benefits of agentic perception, visual rewards, and training-inference decoupling.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models typically fix the number of activated experts k at both training and inference. However, real-world deployments often face heterogeneous hardware, fluctuating workloads, and diverse quality-latency requirements, while training separate models for each scenario is costly. Considering that MoE models already operate with sparse activation, adjusting the number of activated experts offers a natural path to serving diverse budgets with a single model. Yet, we find that activating more experts k' (> k) at inference does not yield the expected gains. Instead, performance degrades rapidly after only a slight increase, a phenomenon we term the inference-time scaling wall. Further investigation reveals that this degradation stems from a lack of learned collaboration among experts. To address this, we introduce Elastic Mixture-of-Experts (EMoE), a novel training framework that enables MoE models to elastically vary the number of activated experts at inference. By simultaneously training experts to collaborate in diverse combinations and encouraging the router to make high-quality selections, EMoE ensures robust performance across inference budgets. Extensive experiments across four MoE architectures (7B--21B) and nine benchmarks show that EMoE significantly expands the effective scaling range to 2-3times the training-time k, while also achieving higher peak performance.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) large language models (LLMs) are gradually becoming the mainstream approach for ultra-large-scale models. Existing optimization efforts for MoE models have focused primarily on coarse-grained MoE architectures. With the emergence of DeepSeek Models, fine-grained MoE models are gaining popularity, yet research on them remains limited. Therefore, we want to discuss the efficiency dynamic under different service loads. Additionally, fine-grained models allow deployers to reduce the number of routed experts, both activated counts and total counts, raising the question of how this reduction affects the trade-off between MoE efficiency and performance. Our findings indicate that while deploying MoE models presents greater challenges, it also offers significant optimization opportunities. Reducing the number of activated experts can lead to substantial efficiency improvements in certain scenarios, with only minor performance degradation. Reducing the total number of experts provides limited efficiency gains but results in severe performance degradation. Our method can increase throughput by at least 10\% without any performance degradation. Overall, we conclude that MoE inference optimization remains an area with substantial potential for exploration and improvement.

Optimization Modeling (OM) is essential for solving complex decision-making problems. However, the process remains time-consuming and error-prone, heavily relying on domain experts. While Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in addressing these challenges through their natural language understanding and reasoning capabilities, current approaches face three critical limitations: high benchmark labeling error rates reaching up to 42%, narrow evaluation scope that only considers optimal values, and computational inefficiency due to heavy reliance on multi-agent systems or model fine-tuning. In this work, we first enhance existing datasets through systematic error correction and more comprehensive annotation. Additionally, we introduce LogiOR, a new optimization modeling benchmark from the logistics domain, containing more complex problems with standardized annotations. Furthermore, we present ORThought, a novel framework that leverages expert-level optimization modeling principles through chain-of-thought reasoning to automate the OM process. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that ORThought outperforms existing approaches, including multi-agent frameworks, with particularly significant advantages on complex optimization problems. Finally, we provide a systematic analysis of our method, identifying critical success factors and failure modes, providing valuable insights for future research on LLM-based optimization modeling.

The world currently has an abundance of ideas for how to use new LLM agents, and developers seek to rapidly prototype and test new agentic designs. However, executing agents at scale using high-capacity LLMs incurs high inference costs. We propose a simple method for reducing LLM agent inference costs without incurring the development friction costs associated with LLM fine-tuning (long training cycles, optimization hyperparameter tweaking loops) or manual prompt engineering (laborious trial and error). Most importantly, we introduce in-context distillation, which adapts the idea of knowledge distillation (training a low cost-student model to mimic a high-cost teacher) to an in-context learning setting. Our approach retrieves relevant teacher demonstrations at each agent step and provides them to the student as in-context examples, enabling the student to imitate teacher behavior on-the-fly. We combine in-context distillation with the established idea of self-consistency cascades to know when the trust the student. This adaptive strategy realizes the cost benefits of model specialization while preserving the productivity of working with frozen models. On the multi-step embodied reasoning benchmark ALFWorld, our method matches teacher-level accuracy at 2.5\times lower cost, reducing per-episode costs from \0.059 to 0.024. The upfront demonstration cost amortizes after just 843 episodes, yielding cumulative savings exceeding \34,900 at deployment scale (1M episodes). On AppWorld, a complex agent benchmark requiring multi-step API workflows, we shift the Pareto frontier by achieving a 2times cost reduction$ at iso-accuracy. By reducing operational costs while maintaining rapid experimentation cycles with frozen models, our approach makes advanced agentic systems economically viable for a broader range of applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often memorize sensitive, private, or copyrighted data during pre-training. LLM unlearning aims to eliminate the influence of undesirable data from the pre-trained model while preserving the model's utilities on other tasks. Several practical methods have recently been proposed for LLM unlearning, mostly based on gradient ascent (GA) on the loss of undesirable data. However, on certain unlearning tasks, these methods either fail to effectively unlearn the target data or suffer from catastrophic collapse -- a drastic degradation of the model's utilities. In this paper, we propose Negative Preference Optimization (NPO), a simple alignment-inspired method that could efficiently and effectively unlearn a target dataset. We theoretically show that the progression toward catastrophic collapse by minimizing the NPO loss is exponentially slower than GA. Through experiments on synthetic data and the benchmark TOFU dataset, we demonstrate that NPO-based methods achieve a better balance between unlearning the undesirable data and maintaining the model's utilities. We also observe that NPO-based methods generate more sensible outputs than GA-based methods, whose outputs are often gibberish. Remarkably, on TOFU, NPO-based methods are the first to achieve reasonable unlearning results in forgetting 50% (or more) of the training data, whereas existing methods already struggle with forgetting 10% of training data.

Scaling Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) to hundreds of layers introduces a structural vulnerability: networks can enter a silent, mean-dominated collapse state that homogenizes token representations and suppresses centered variation. Through mechanistic auditing, we isolate the trigger event of this collapse as Mean Mode Screaming (MMS). MMS can occur even when training appears stable, with a mean-coherent backward shock on residual writers that opens deep residual branches and drives the network into a mean-dominated state. We show this behavior is driven by an exact decomposition of these gradients into mean-coherent and centered components, compounded by the structural suppression of attention-logit gradients through the null space of the Softmax Jacobian once values homogenize. To address this, we propose Mean-Variance Split (MV-Split) Residuals, which combine a separately gained centered residual update with a leaky trunk-mean replacement. On a 400-layer single-stream DiT, MV-Split prevents the divergent collapse that crashes the un-stabilized baseline; it tracks close to the baseline's pre-crash trajectory while remaining substantially better than token-isotropic gating methods such as LayerScale across the full schedule. Finally, we present a 1000-layer DiT as a scale-validation run at boundary scales, establishing that the architecture remains stably trainable at extreme depth.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models challenge serving infrastructures with dynamic, sparse expert utilization, causing instability on conventional systems designed for dense architectures. We propose EaaS, a novel serving system to enable efficient, scalable, and robust MoE deployment. Our system disaggregates MoE modules into independent, stateless services. This design enables fine-grained resource scaling and provides inherent fault tolerance by decoupling compute units. The architecture is powered by a high-performance, CPU-free peer-to-peer communication library that ensures minimal overhead and high throughput. Experiments confirm EaaS's scalability and efficiency, achieving performance comparable to monolithic systems while providing robust fault tolerance and strong scalability. EaaS incurs less than a 2% throughput reduction under simulated hardware failures that would otherwise halt monolithic architectures. It further saves up to 37.5% of computing resources through dynamic fine-grained adaptation to serving traffic, demonstrating strong resilience for large-scale MoE deployment in production.

Recent progress in multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly improved reasoning LLMs' performances on complex interactive tasks. Despite advances in stabilization techniques such as fine-grained credit assignment and trajectory filtering, instability remains pervasive and often leads to training collapse. We argue that this instability stems from inefficient exploration in multi-turn settings, where policies continue to generate low-information actions that neither reduce uncertainty nor advance task progress. To address this issue, we propose Token- and Turn-level Policy Optimization (T^2PO), an uncertainty-aware framework that explicitly controls exploration at fine-grained levels. At the token level, T^2PO monitors uncertainty dynamics and triggers a thinking intervention once the marginal uncertainty change falls below a threshold. At the turn level, T^2PO identifies interactions with negligible exploration progress and dynamically resamples such turns to avoid wasted rollouts. We evaluate T^2PO in diverse environments, including WebShop, ALFWorld, and Search QA, demonstrating substantial gains in training stability and performance improvements with better exploration efficiency. Code is available at: https://github.com/WillDreamer/T2PO.

Large language models have revolutionized natural language processing, yet their deployment remains hampered by the substantial memory and runtime overhead of the transformer's Key-Value cache. To mitigate this, recent methods employ a scoring-aggregation framework to evict unimportant cache entries, based on the stability assumption-that a fixed subset of entries remains consistently important during generation. However, prior work has largely focused on refining importance indicators for scoring, while defaulting to mean aggregation due to a faithful trust in the stability assumption. In this work, we argue that this underlying assumption is inherently fragile, making mean aggregation highly vulnerable in extreme cases. To counter this, we propose a simple yet elegant defensive aggregation strategy: a two-step, linear-time approach that controls worst-case risk, thereby defending against extreme cases with negligible computational overhead. Embodying this strategy, we propose a novel cache eviction method, DefensiveKV and its extension, Layer-DefensiveKV, which incorporates layer-wise budget allocation. Across seven task domains (18 datasets), our methods reduce generation quality loss by 2.3x and 4.3x respectively, versus the strongest baseline under a 20% cache size. These results set new performance benchmarks and pioneer a promising direction for optimizing cache eviction against underlying fragility through worst-case risk management. Our code is available at https://github.com/FFY0/DefensiveKV.

Being prompted to engage in reasoning has emerged as a core technique for using large language models (LLMs), deploying additional inference-time compute to improve task performance. However, as LLMs increase in both size and adoption, inference costs are correspondingly becoming increasingly burdensome. How, then, might we optimize reasoning's cost-performance tradeoff? This work introduces a novel approach based on computational models of metareasoning used in cognitive science, training LLMs to selectively use intermediate reasoning steps only when necessary. We first develop a reward function that incorporates the Value of Computation by penalizing unnecessary reasoning, then use this reward function with Expert Iteration to train the LLM. Compared to few-shot chain-of-thought prompting and STaR, our method significantly reduces inference costs (20-37\% fewer tokens generated across three models) while maintaining task performance across diverse datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful operators for evolutionary search, yet the design of efficient search scaffolds remains ad hoc. While promising, current LLM-in-the-loop systems lack a systematic approach to managing the evolutionary process. We identify three distinct failure modes: Context Pollution, where experiment history biases future candidate generation; Mode Collapse, where agents stagnate in local minima due to poor exploration-exploitation balance; and Weak Collaboration, where rigid crossover strategies fail to leverage parallel search trajectories effectively. We introduce Progress-Aware Consistent Evolution (PACEvolve), a framework designed to robustly govern the agent's context and search dynamics, to address these challenges. PACEvolve combines hierarchical context management (HCM) with pruning to address context pollution; momentum-based backtracking (MBB) to escape local minima; and a self-adaptive sampling policy that unifies backtracking and crossover for dynamic search coordination (CE), allowing agents to balance internal refinement with cross-trajectory collaboration. We demonstrate that PACEvolve provides a systematic path to consistent, long-horizon self-improvement, achieving state-of-the-art results on LLM-SR and KernelBench, while discovering solutions surpassing the record on Modded NanoGPT.

Large language model (LLM) merging has become a key technique in modern LLM development pipelines, enabling the integration of multiple task- or domain-specific expert models without retraining. However, as the number of experts grows, existing merging implementations treat model parameters as unstructured files and execute merges in a stateless, one-shot manner, leading to excessive disk I/O, redundant parameter scans, and poor scalability. In this paper, we present MergePipe, a parameter management system for scalable LLM merging. MergePipe is the first system that treats LLM merging as a data management and execution problem, and introduces a catalog-driven abstraction over model parameters, merge plans, and execution lineage. At its core, MergePipe employs a cost-aware planner that explicitly models expert parameter I/O and enforces user-specified I/O budgets, followed by a streaming execution engine that materializes merged models under transactional guarantees. Our key insight is that while base model reads and output writes are unavoidable, expert parameter reads dominate merge cost and constitute the primary optimization target. By making expert access budget-aware throughout planning and execution, MergePipe mitigates the O(K) I/O growth of naive pipelines and achieves predictable scaling behavior. Experiments show that MergePipe reduces total I/O by up to an order of magnitude and delivers up to 11times end-to-end speedups (up to 90\% wall-time reduction) over state-of-the-art LLM merging pipelines.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Optimization (PPO) has been positioned by recent literature as the canonical method for the RL part of RLHF. PPO performs well empirically but has a heuristic motivation and handles the KL-divergence constraint used in LM-RLHF in an ad-hoc manner and suffers form reward oscillations, entropy collapse, value function drift, and sudden policy divergence that require frequent restarts and extensive hyperparameter tuning. In this paper, we develop a new pure on policy actor-critic RL method for the LM-RLHF setting. We present SAFE (Stable Alignment Finetuning with Entropy-aware control),a novel RLHF algorithm that combines a Double Soft-Min Critic for pessimistic value estimation with a new multi-layer stabilization framework combining entropy-gated KL regulation, and PID-controlled adaptive thresholds. Unlike standard PPO's symmetric KL penalties, SAFE distinguishes high-entropy exploration from low-entropy mode collapse and adjusts penalties dynamically based on reward velocity. Experiments on a 3B parameter model show SAFE achieves +5.15\% training-average reward than PPO (0.725 vs 0.689), negligible reward crashes, and superior KL control than ppo . Our method adds minimal computational overhead and provides an interpretable, crash-resistant RLHF framework that maintains aggressive learning speed while ensuring stable long-horizon optimization suitable for production deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/ryyzn9/SAFE

The increasing complexity of advanced machine learning models requires innovative approaches to manage computational resources effectively. One such method is the Early Exit strategy, which allows for adaptive computation by providing a mechanism to shorten the processing path for simpler data instances. In this paper, we propose EERO, a new methodology to translate the problem of early exiting to a problem of using multiple classifiers with reject option in order to better select the exiting head for each instance. We calibrate the probabilities of exiting at the different heads using aggregation with exponential weights to guarantee a fixed budget .We consider factors such as Bayesian risk, budget constraints, and head-specific budget consumption. Experimental results, conducted using a ResNet-18 model and a ConvNext architecture on Cifar and ImageNet datasets, demonstrate that our method not only effectively manages budget allocation but also enhances accuracy in overthinking scenarios.

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) built on large language models typically solve complex tasks by coordinating multiple agents through workflows. Existing approaches generates workflows either at task level or query level, but their relative costs and benefits remain unclear. After rethinking and empirical analyses, we show that query-level workflow generation is not always necessary, since a small set of top-K best task-level workflows together already covers equivalent or even more queries. We further find that exhaustive execution-based task-level evaluation is both extremely token-costly and frequently unreliable. Inspired by the idea of self-evolution and generative reward modeling, we propose a low-cost task-level generation framework SCALE, which means \textbf{S}elf prediction of the optimizer with few shot \textbf{CAL}ibration for \textbf{E}valuation instead of full validation execution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SCALE maintains competitive performance, with an average degradation of just 0.61\% compared to existing approach across multiple datasets, while cutting overall token usage by up to 83\%.

The current reinforcement learning framework focuses exclusively on performance, often at the expense of efficiency. In contrast, biological control achieves remarkable performance while also optimizing computational energy expenditure and decision frequency. We propose a Decision Bounded Markov Decision Process (DB-MDP), that constrains the number of decisions and computational energy available to agents in reinforcement learning environments. Our experiments demonstrate that existing reinforcement learning algorithms struggle within this framework, leading to either failure or suboptimal performance. To address this, we introduce a biologically-inspired, Temporally Layered Architecture (TLA), enabling agents to manage computational costs through two layers with distinct time scales and energy requirements. TLA achieves optimal performance in decision-bounded environments and in continuous control environments, it matches state-of-the-art performance while utilizing a fraction of the compute cost. Compared to current reinforcement learning algorithms that solely prioritize performance, our approach significantly lowers computational energy expenditure while maintaining performance. These findings establish a benchmark and pave the way for future research on energy and time-aware control.

State-of-the-art deep learning models have achieved significant performance levels on various benchmarks. However, the excellent performance comes at a cost of inefficient computational cost. Light-weight architectures, on the other hand, achieve moderate accuracies, but at a much more desirable latency. This paper presents a new method of jointly using the large accurate models together with the small fast ones. To this end, we propose an Energy-Based Joint Reasoning (EBJR) framework that adaptively distributes the samples between shallow and deep models to achieve an accuracy close to the deep model, but latency close to the shallow one. Our method is applicable to out-of-the-box pre-trained models as it does not require an architecture change nor re-training. Moreover, it is easy to use and deploy, especially for cloud services. Through a comprehensive set of experiments on different down-stream tasks, we show that our method outperforms strong state-of-the-art approaches with a considerable margin. In addition, we propose specialized EBJR, an extension of our method where we create a smaller specialized side model that performs the target task only partially, but yields an even higher accuracy and faster inference. We verify the strengths of our methods with both theoretical and experimental evaluations.

Scheduling precedence-constrained tasks under shared renewable resources is central to modern computing platforms. The Resource Investment Problem (RIP) models this setting by minimizing the cost of provisioned renewable resources under precedence and timing constraints. Exact mixed-integer programming and constraint programming become impractically slow on large instances, and dynamic updates require schedule revisions under tight latency budgets. We present iScheduler, a reinforcement-learning-driven iterative scheduling framework that formulates RIP solving as a Markov decision process over decomposed subproblems and constructs schedules through sequential process selection. The framework accelerates optimization and supports reconfiguration by reusing unchanged process schedules and rescheduling only affected processes. We also release L-RIPLIB, an industrial-scale benchmark derived from cloud-platform workloads with 1,000 instances of 2,500-10,000 tasks. Experiments show that iScheduler attains competitive resource costs while reducing time to feasibility by up to 43times against strong commercial baselines.

Training LLMs on decentralized and wimpy computation nodes, e.g., multiple on-spot instances, lowers the training cost and enables model democratization. The inevitable challenge here is the churn of nodes due to failures and the operator's scheduling policies, leading to losing a stage - a part of the model. The conventional approaches to recover from failures are to either use checkpointing, where periodically a copy of the entire model is sent to an additional storage, or redundant computation. These approaches yield significant communication and/or computation overhead even in non-failure cases and scale poorly in settings with large models. In this paper, we propose, CheckFree, an efficient recovery method where a failing stage is substituted by a weighted average of the closest neighboring stages. In contrast to the state of the art, CheckFree requires no additional computation or storage. However, because of the nature of averaging neighbouring stages, it can only recover failures of intermediate stages. We further extend our method to CheckFree+ with out-of-order pipeline execution to tolerate crashes of the first and last stages. Thanks to out-of-order pipelining, behaviour of those stages is mimicked by their neighboring ones, which allows CheckFree+ to recover them by simply copying the weights from the immediate neighbour. To be able to recover the (de)embedding layers, CheckFree+ copies those layers to the neighboring stages, which requires relatively small storage overhead. We extensively evaluate our method on LLaMa models of model sizes from 124M to 1.5B with varying failure frequencies. In the case of low and medium failure rates (5-10%), CheckFree and CheckFree+ outperform both checkpointing and redundant computation in terms of convergence in wall-clock time by over 12%. Both of our proposals can be run via our code available at: https://github.com/gensyn-ai/CheckFree.

Modern large-scale language model pre-training relies heavily on the single program multiple data (SPMD) paradigm, which requires tight coupling across accelerators. Due to this coupling, transient slowdowns, hardware failures, and synchronization overhead stall the entire computation, wasting significant compute time at scale. While recent distributed methods like DiLoCo reduced communication bandwidth, they remained fundamentally synchronous and vulnerable to these system stalls. To address this, we introduce Decoupled DiLoCo, an evolution of the DiLoCo framework designed to break the lock-step synchronization barrier and go beyond SPMD to maximize training goodput. Decoupled DiLoCo partitions compute across multiple independent ``learners'' that execute local inner optimization steps. These learners asynchronously communicate parameter fragments to a central synchronizer, which circumvents failed or straggling learners by aggregating updates using a minimum quorum, an adaptive grace window, and dynamic token-weighted merging. Inspired by ``chaos engineering'', we achieve significantly improved training efficiency in failure-prone environments with millions of simulated chips with strictly zero global downtime, while maintaining competitive model performance across text and vision tasks, for both dense and mixture-of-expert architectures.

Training deep neural networks for classification often includes minimizing the training loss beyond the zero training error point. In this phase of training, a "neural collapse" behavior has been observed: the variability of features (outputs of the penultimate layer) of within-class samples decreases and the mean features of different classes approach a certain tight frame structure. Recent works analyze this behavior via idealized unconstrained features models where all the minimizers exhibit exact collapse. However, with practical networks and datasets, the features typically do not reach exact collapse, e.g., because deep layers cannot arbitrarily modify intermediate features that are far from being collapsed. In this paper, we propose a richer model that can capture this phenomenon by forcing the features to stay in the vicinity of a predefined features matrix (e.g., intermediate features). We explore the model in the small vicinity case via perturbation analysis and establish results that cannot be obtained by the previously studied models. For example, we prove reduction in the within-class variability of the optimized features compared to the predefined input features (via analyzing gradient flow on the "central-path" with minimal assumptions), analyze the minimizers in the near-collapse regime, and provide insights on the effect of regularization hyperparameters on the closeness to collapse. We support our theory with experiments in practical deep learning settings.

Large-language-model (LLM)-based AI agents have recently showcased impressive versatility by employing dynamic reasoning, an adaptive, multi-step process that coordinates with external tools. This shift from static, single-turn inference to agentic, multi-turn workflows broadens task generalization and behavioral flexibility, but it also introduces serious concerns about system-level cost, efficiency, and sustainability. This paper presents the first comprehensive system-level analysis of AI agents, quantifying their resource usage, latency behavior, energy consumption, and datacenter-wide power consumption demands across diverse agent designs and test-time scaling strategies. We further characterize how AI agent design choices, such as few-shot prompting, reflection depth, and parallel reasoning, impact accuracy-cost tradeoffs. Our findings reveal that while agents improve accuracy with increased compute, they suffer from rapidly diminishing returns, widening latency variance, and unsustainable infrastructure costs. Through detailed evaluation of representative agents, we highlight the profound computational demands introduced by AI agent workflows, uncovering a looming sustainability crisis. These results call for a paradigm shift in agent design toward compute-efficient reasoning, balancing performance with deployability under real-world constraints.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Developers and consumers increasingly choose reasoning language models (RLMs) based on their listed API prices. However, how accurately do these prices reflect actual inference costs? We conduct the first systematic study of this question, evaluating 8 frontier RLMs across 9 diverse tasks covering competition math, science QA, code generation, and multi-domain reasoning. We uncover the pricing reversal phenomenon: in 21.8% of model-pair comparisons, the model with a lower listed price actually incurs a higher total cost, with reversal magnitude reaching up to 28x. For example, Gemini 3 Flash's listed price is 78% cheaper than GPT-5.2's, yet its actual cost across all tasks is 22% higher. We trace the root cause to vast heterogeneity in thinking token consumption: on the same query, one model may use 900% more thinking tokens than another. In fact, removing thinking token costs reduces ranking reversals by 70% and raises the rank correlation (Kendall's τ ) between price and cost rankings from 0.563 to 0.873. We further show that per-query cost prediction is fundamentally difficult: repeated runs of the same query yield thinking token variation up to 9.7x, establishing an irreducible noise floor for any predictor. Our findings demonstrate that listed API pricing is an unreliable proxy for actual cost, calling for cost-aware model selection and transparent per-request cost monitoring.

Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in extending large language models into agentic systems. While the effectiveness of agents has continued to improve, efficiency, which is crucial for real-world deployment, has often been overlooked. This paper therefore investigates efficiency from three core components of agents: memory, tool learning, and planning, considering costs such as latency, tokens, steps, etc. Aimed at conducting comprehensive research addressing the efficiency of the agentic system itself, we review a broad range of recent approaches that differ in implementation yet frequently converge on shared high-level principles including but not limited to bounding context via compression and management, designing reinforcement learning rewards to minimize tool invocation, and employing controlled search mechanisms to enhance efficiency, which we discuss in detail. Accordingly, we characterize efficiency in two complementary ways: comparing effectiveness under a fixed cost budget, and comparing cost at a comparable level of effectiveness. This trade-off can also be viewed through the Pareto frontier between effectiveness and cost. From this perspective, we also examine efficiency oriented benchmarks by summarizing evaluation protocols for these components and consolidating commonly reported efficiency metrics from both benchmark and methodological studies. Moreover, we discuss the key challenges and future directions, with the goal of providing promising insights.

As modern microservice systems grow increasingly popular and complex-often consisting of hundreds or even thousands of fine-grained, interdependent components-they are becoming more susceptible to frequent and subtle failures. Ensuring system reliability therefore hinges on accurate and efficient failure localization. Traditional failure localization approaches based on small models lack the flexibility to adapt to diverse failure scenarios, while recent LLM-based methods suffer from two major limitations: they often rely on rigid invocation workflows that constrain the model's ability to dynamically explore optimal localization paths, and they require resource-intensive inference, making them cost-prohibitive for real-world deployment. To address these challenges, we explore the use of reinforcement fine-tuning to equip lightweight LLMs with reasoning and self-refinement capabilities, significantly improving the cost-effectiveness and adaptability of LLM-based failure localization. We begin with an empirical study to identify three key capabilities essential for accurate localization. Building on these insights, we propose a progressive multi-stage GRPO fine-tuning framework, which integrates a multi-factor failure localization grader and a recursion-of-thought actor module. The resulting model, ThinkFL, not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art LLMs and baseline methods in localization accuracy but also reduces end-to-end localization latency from minutes to seconds, demonstrating strong potential for real-world applications.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

LLM-agent budget overruns are a documented production failure class: a single retry loop can spend thousands of dollars before an operator notices, and the in-process integrity properties that would prevent it (no aliasing, no double-spend, no use-after-delegation of a cost-bearing value) are enforced, if at all, by ad-hoc wrappers rather than by the type system. Our central contribution is empirical: a catalog of 63 confirmed production incidents from 21 orchestration frameworks (2023-2026), each backed by a quoted GitHub issue and, where reported, a dollar loss, organized into an eight-cluster failure taxonomy (inter-rater Cohen's kappa = 0.837, N = 113), plus 47 supplementary structural entries. As one mitigation evaluated against this taxonomy, we build token-budgets, an 1,180-line Rust crate (no unsafe) that operationalizes affine ownership so that cloning, double-spending, or using a budget after delegating it are compile errors rather than runtime hazards an operator must remember to avoid. The dollar cap is runtime arithmetic under an estimator assumption; the affine layer makes that arithmetic non-bypassable. On single-agent workloads a 4-line Python counter matches the crate at 0/30 overshoot, so the distinguishing value is non-bypassability under operator error in multi-agent delegation: the delegation-fanout race documented in 11 incidents is rejected by the borrow checker at compile time, while the same pattern under asyncio overshoots 30/30 and three disciplined alternatives overshoot 0/30. Across five runtimes, three providers, and a temperature-stratified live-API test (N = 160), the approach reports zero cap violations and zero false refusals, at operational parity with concurrent work. Static over-reservation is 4-6x (2.11x adaptive). Binary-level cap-soundness on the running binary is left open.