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Jun 3

CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification-formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions-and estimation-implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 173 queries across 138 real-world datasets, curated from 85 peer-reviewed research papers and four widely-used causal-inference textbooks. For each query a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 84 % of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 30 %, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 24

UAVFF3D: A Geometry-Aware Benchmark for Feed-Forward UAV 3D Reconstruction

Feed-forward 3D reconstruction has advanced rapidly, but current models remain unreliable in UAV photogrammetric acquisition. We argue that this failure is caused not only by appearance-domain shift, but also by UAV-specific camera-geometry variations, especially oblique views and HFOV-height ambiguity. Existing UAV datasets mainly emphasize scene diversity and provide limited coverage of camera configurations, which restricts robustness evaluation and UAV-domain adaptation. To address this gap, we introduce UAVFF3D, a geometry-aware real-synthetic benchmark for feed-forward UAV 3D reconstruction. UAVFF3D contains more than 170k real UAV images and more than 370k synthetic images rendered from high-quality textured 3D models, covering diverse HFOVs, flight altitudes, viewing directions, and acquisition patterns. It also includes a controlled HFOV-height test subset for diagnosing projection-geometry ambiguity. We further propose an evaluation protocol that jointly assesses camera-geometry estimation and dense scene reconstruction under a shared global alignment, avoiding the bias caused by separate camera and geometry alignments. Experiments on representative feed-forward reconstruction models show that UAVFF3D-based domain adaptation consistently improves camera and geometry estimation, reducing Ray Error by up to 84.2%, Pose ATE by up to 76.0%, and Chamfer Distance by up to 41.1%. In oblique scenes, adaptation reduces the oblique-nadir rotation gap by up to 90.7%. Under HFOV-height ambiguity, it improves robustness across HFOV-height configurations and yields more stable performance across HFOV settings. Incorporating camera priors further improves reconstruction under UAV-specific acquisition geometries. The dataset and evaluation code are available at https://github.com/yanxian-ll/UAVFF3D .

  • 4 authors
·
May 18

Transfer Learning for Meta-analysis Under Covariate Shift

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 5